AP top 25 poll: Five most underrated college football teams in Week 14

SMU Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) runs with the ball during the first half against the Louisville Cardinals at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
SMU Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) runs with the ball during the first half against the Louisville Cardinals at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Of course, the rankings that truly matter don't come out until Tuesday when the College Football Playoff committee unveils its latest ordering of the teams.

But with a new AP top 25 poll out, it's worth dissecting as we have all season.

One can nitpick decisions within the top 10, and we will, but the backend of the AP poll is where we really took issue with how the voters are viewing a few teams in particular.

Here are the five most underrated teams entering Week 14.

No. 25 SMU

SMU made the College Football Playoff last year and was expected to be one of the ACC's best teams again this year, and while it has incurred some setbacks along the way, that's still proven to be true nonetheless.

But the voters are misevaluating the Mustangs (8-3, 6-1), who just snuck back into the bottom of the poll at No. 25 this week after a 38-6 beatdown of Louisville.

Let's break down SMU's path to 8-3.

Two of its three losses came in September (48-45 vs. Baylor and 35-24 at TCU), which is usually viewed differently from how a team is playing in the second half of the season. Since then, SMU has won six of seven games with the lone loss coming by a point, 13-12 at Wake Forest, on a 50-yard field goal as time expired.

That's the only thing keeping SMU from being 9-2 and ranked in the 16/17 range, but that's fine; it did happen. But what is maybe being obscured is that Wake Forest is actually a damn good team this year at 8-3, so that's not a "bad" loss per se.

Meanwhile, the Mustangs beat then-No. 10 Miami (26-10), delivered the death knell to Louisville's CFP hopes this past week, won by 11 points at Clemson (which, yeah, Clemson isn't good but still a tough road venue) and have beaten five ACC teams by double-figures. The average margin of victory for SMU in its wins over Power Four opponents is 19.7 points.

So where should SMU be ranked?

Ahead of No. 24 Pittsburgh (8-3), for sure. SMU's win over Miami is better than the Panthers' win over Georgia Tech, and Pitt got blown out by Notre Dame two weeks ago.

Also ahead of No. 18 Tennessee, but not necessarily that high -- the Vols are just egregiously overrated. Their four SEC wins were against four of the bottom six teams in the conference (Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky and Florida), and for that matter, they haven't beaten a Power Four opponent with a winning record all season. SEC bias at its worst.

And if No. 18 USC (8-3) can be ranked ahead of the three Group of Five teams (No. 20 James Madison, No. 21 North Texas, No. 22 Tulane) and No. 23 Georgia Tech (9-2, one fewer loss but really no notable win), then so can SMU.

But all of that is ultimately moot as SMU isn't getting an at-large berth into the playoffs regardless, nor does it need one. With Georgia Tech losing over the weekend, the Mustangs now control their own destiny the rest of the way. If they beat Cal this week, they're in the ACC championship game and one win away from the playoffs.

North Texas football is pursuing a CFP berth
North Texas Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker has his team in contention for an AAC championship and potential CFP berth. | Danny Wild-Imagn Images

No. 21 North Texas/No. 22 Tulane

While it doesn't really matter where these teams are ranked in the AP poll, it does matter in the official CFP rankings, as the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion will get into the playoff field.

And so we must again at least draw attention to the mistake the AP voters are making: having No. 20 James Madison (10-1, from the Sun Belt) ahead of the two AAC leaders, No. 21 North Texas (10-1) and No. 22 Tulane (9-2).

We'll keep it simple and concise, and remind voters that they need to look at the resumes, not just the raw records.

James Madison has beaten only one -- one! -- team that has a winning record (Old Dominion). It had to rally late for a 24-20 win this past weekend over Washington State, a team that North Texas beat 59-10.

North Texas' only loss came to a then-ranked South Florida team, while it has a 31-17 win over 8-2 Navy to its credit. To be honest, the Mean Green's resume isn't much different from James Madison's, with only a couple notable wins, but the most notable difference is beating Washington State and playing in a better conference should be enough to give it the edge.

Tulane should be ahead of both those teams, though. The Green Wave scheduled three Power Four opponents and beat two of them -- Northwestern and Duke, while losing to Ole Miss (a top 10 team). A 48-26 loss at UTSA last month was a head-scratcher, but the Roadrunners at least have a winning record overall. Meanwhile, Tulane beat two of the other top AAC teams, East Carolina and Memphis, on the road.

Tulane is the best Group of Five team and notably was the only G5 team in the CFP rankings last week at No. 24. As long as the CFP committee continues to get it right, that's all that matters, but the AP voters need to reexamine the ranking of these three teams because it's totally backwards.

Ole Miss drops a spot in the AP rankings to No. 6.
Mississippi Rebels running back Kewan Lacy (5) and head coach Lane Kiffin react after defeating the Florida Gators at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

No. 6 Ole Miss

It's either classic recency bias or undeserved weight being put on the drama surrounding Lane Kiffin's place in the coaching carousel and uncertainty over his future, but Ole Miss should not have dropped a spot in the latest AP poll to No. 6.

The 10-1 Rebels were on a bye, and their resume did not change in that time, while Oregon bumped ahead of them in the rankings to No. 5 with a 42-27 win over then-No. 15 USC on Saturday.

It was a great win for the Ducks, but they were 10.5-point favorites at home and basically did as expected against a Trojans team that many remained skeptical about despite its record. It was an eight-point game midway through the fourth quarter before Oregon scored the final touchdown, so it wasn't some statement-making blowout or anything.

That is Oregon's only win over a team currently in the AP top 25, while it also beat an Iowa team still ranked at the time, and the CFP committee said it still considers the Ducks' September win at then-No. 3 Penn State significant despite the Nittany Lions' subsequent freefall. The Ducks lost their biggest game, 30-20, at home to Indiana.

Their only loss came on the road by 8 points at Georgia, so both teams took their only loss to a top-5 team in the current rankings. The Rebels also beat LSU when the Tigers were ranked No. 4, so kind of similar to Oregon's win over Penn State. But Ole Miss also beat Oklahoma (a likely playoff team) on the road and blew out aforementioned Tulane by 35 points.

We're splitting hairs here, but Ole Miss shouldn't be ranked behind Oregon just because the Ducks won a game they were expected to win over a good but not great USC team.

Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) passes the ball during the first half against the Eastern Illinois Panthers at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. | David Leong-Imagn Images

No. 10 Alabama

How one evaluates Alabama really comes down to how much weight one puts on that Week 1 loss to Florida State.

The Crimson Tide are 9-1 since then with wins over Georgia (on the road), Vanderbilt and Tennessee teams that are still ranked. That 24-21 win over the Bulldogs in Athens is one of the best wins on any team's resume in the country this season.

So they lost two weeks ago to Oklahoma, which is now No. 8 in the AP rankings. They didn't get dominated or manhandled or anything of the sort in that game. They made mistakes -- a pick-6, a fumbled punt return leading to an OU touchdown and another fumble leading to a field goal -- while outgaining the Sooners 406 yards to 212.

Alabama should still be ranked ahead of No. 9 Notre Dame, which has impressively won nine straight games since opening 0-2 with losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but the Fighting Irish don't have the same resume of notable wins as the Crimson Tide. Notre Dame's best wins are against USC, Pitt and unranked Navy.

Again, we're splitting hairs, but that's the whole point here!


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Ryan Young
RYAN YOUNG

Ryan Young joins CFB HQ On SI after 15 years as a college football beat writer, including the last seven years in Los Angeles covering the USC Trojans for Rivals. He previously covered Florida and Coastal Carolina after four years at the Kansas City Star. He is a graduate of the University of Maryland.

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