AP top 25 poll: Week 4 college football games most likely to shake up the rankings

A three-game sample size is far too small to really know what to believe about a college football team, especially when most Power Four programs have padded their win total against lower Group of Five or FCS teams.

The Week 4 college football slate, meanwhile, is loaded with compelling matchups that will provide more clarity on the contenders and pretenders.

Here are the Week 4 matchups that are going to have the biggest impact on the rankings. (All times Eastern, all odds via ESPNBet)

No. 17 Texas Tech (3-0) at No. 16 Utah (3-0), 12 p.m. on FOX

This is one of three games on the schedule Saturday featuring two ranked teams, and it's arguably the most intriguing.

Texas Tech has taken advantage of the free-spending NIL era of college football to transform its perception like no other program, and the Red Raiders have backed up preseason hype with thoroughly dominant wins over the likes of Arkansas-Pine Bluff (67-7), Kent State (62-14) and Oregon State (45-14). But how good are the Red Raiders actually? We're about to find out.

Utah has come on strong, led by transfer quarterback Devon Dampier (628 passing yards, 7 TDs, 0 INT; 198 rushing yards, TD) with equally lopsided wins over UCLA (43-10), Cal-Poly (63-9) and Wyoming (31-6).

This will be a fun one in Salt Lake City, and the winner will be deserving of a nice bump up in the polls. Utah is a 4.5-point favorite.

No. 9 Illinois (3-0) at No. 19 Indiana (3-0), 7:30 p.m. on NBC

The Big Ten is looking especially deep this year, and Illinois and Indiana are a big reason why, as both programs look to continue the emergence they made last year, with the Illini winning 10 games and the Hoosiers winning 11 and making the College Football Playoff.

But what do we truly know about the 2025 version of those teams? Not a ton yet.

A 45-19 win over Duke is a strong statement for Illinois, which ranks fifth nationally in scoring defense at 7.3 points per game, but its other wins came against Western Illinois and Western Michigan (albeit in dominant fashion).

Indiana hasn't been tested yet with blowout wins over Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State (73-0 last week).

The Hoosiers are a 4.5-point favorite at home.

No. 22 Auburn (3-0) at No. 11 Oklahoma (3-0), 3:30 p.m. on ABC

Considering it was picked 11th in the preseason SEC poll, Auburn has been one of the surprise teams so far in college football, but its only Power Four win was a 38-24 victory over Baylor. This will be a much better litmus test for the Tigers.

Oklahoma already has one ranked win -- 24-13 over Michigan -- and handled business with ease against Illinois State and Temple.

This matchup of course pits former Sooners QB Jackson Arnold, who is off to a strong start at Auburn (501 passing yards 4 TDs, 0 INT; 192 rushing yards, 4 TDs), against his old team, while Oklahoma has a Heisman candidate in his replacement John Mateer (944 passing yards, 4 TDs, 3 INT; 161 rushing yards and 4 TDs).

Oklahoma is a 6.5-point favorite.

No. 21 Michigan (2-1) and Nebraska (3-0), 3:30 p.m. on CBS

This is a huge opportunity for Matt Rhule's Nebraska team to make a statement to voters and move into the rankings if it can score a marquee win. The Huskers' victories over Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian haven't moved the needle much to this point, but this one sure would.

Michigan is a 2.5-point favorite on the road that still has everything to prove in its own right with wins over New Mexico and Central Michigan and a 24-13 road loss to Oklahoma in its only true test so far.

Nebraska sophomore Dylan Raiola and Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood are two of the biggest quarterback recruits in the last two cycles, so there's plenty of intrigue in this matchup.

Michigan State (3-0) at No. 25 USC (3-0), 11 p.m. on FOX

Voters have been slow to warm to USC after finishes of 8-5 and 7-6 the last two years, but there's a lot to like about this Trojans team with an improved defense (FBS-leading 4.67 sacks per game) and an offense that ranks first nationally in total offense (604 yards per game) and second in scoring (55 points per game).

After wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern and a 33-17 victory over Purdue last week in its Big Ten opener, USC moved just inside the AP top 25, but it could take a leap up the rankings depending on how it plays against 3-0 Michigan State.

The Spartans, likewise, could vault themselves into the rankings and legitimize their strong start after wins over Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State.

USC is a 15.5-point favorite at home.

Tulane (3-0) at No. 13 Ole Miss (3-0), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN

Tulane is one of the most intriguing unranked teams in the country as it's been a good program the last three years (winning 32 games in that span), is undefeated and already has two wins over Power Four opponents in Northwestern and Duke, and has a high-profile QB in BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff (522 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT; 288 rushing yards and 6 TDs).

There is upset potential here even though Ole Miss is a 12.5-point favorite.

The Rebels are expected to lean on backup quarterback Trinidad Chambliss for a second straight week with Austin Simmons still recovering from injury. He was a revelation in a 41-35 win over Arkansas last week, passing for 353 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 62 yards and two scores.

South Carolina (2-1) at No. 23 Missouri (3-0), 7 p.m. on ESPN

The Gamecocks tumbled all the way from No. 11 to out of the AP poll entirely after a 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt last week.

It might be an overstatement to call this a crossroads for South Carolina's season, but it would certainly make the road in the SEC (and beyond) much tougher if it drops another conference game with its toughest tests still ahead. A win, meanwhile, would probably get South Carolina back in the AP top 25.

As for Missouri, the Tigers have beaten Central Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana and moved into the back end of the rankings this week, but beating South Carolina would really legitimize its strong start.

Missouri is an 11.5-point favorite, but South Carolina is expected to get star quarterback LaNorris Sellers back after he left the game in the first half last week after a hit to the head.

SMU (2-1) at TCU (2-0), 12 p.m. on ESPN

Neither of these teams is ranked, but that could change this week.

SMU was ranked No. 16 to open the season after going 11-3 and reaching the College Football Playoff last year, but an overtime loss to Baylor in Week 2 knocked the Mustangs out of the poll.

TCU has beaten up on North Carolina and Abilene Christian so far, but it looks like a team flying under the radar with its loaded offense led by veteran QB Josh Hoover. The Horned Frogs are 6.5-point favorites at home.

Florida (1-2) at No. 4 Miami (3-0), 7:30 p.m. on ABC

It sure seems unlikely that Florida with embattled head coach Billy Napier and QB DJ Lagway coming off a five-interception game are going to go into Miami and beat the Hurricanes, but anything is possible in such a marquee in-state matchup so this game has to make the list.

Also, when talking about a top-five team in the polls, style points matter, so it'll be up to Miami to continue to show it deserves such a lofty ranking.

Miami is a 9.5-point favorite at home.

Cal (3-0) at San Diego State (1-1), 10:30 p.m. on CBSSN

This might seem a surprise addition to the list, but Cal might be the most under-the-radar team in college football.

The Bears are undefeated with two double-digit-point wins over Power Four foes in Oregon State (34-15) and Minnesota (27-14), and have one of the most exciting freshman quarterbacks in the country in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (780 passing yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT).

The Bears also have one of the most favorable schedules in the country, with no other opponent currently ranked in the national rankings. If they can beat up on San Diego State as 13.5-point favorites and move to 4-0, they're going to deserve a stronger look at the back of the top 25.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.