College football's biggest surprise teams in 2025, per Phil Steele

Like life itself, college football is full of surprises, upsets, teams that should have been great but flopped, and should have been terrible but made a run, and the 2025 season should be no different.

And with the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, the race for the national championship has opened up in a way it never has before.

That means more teams will have a chance to play their way into contention for the title, provided they can finish the regular season as one of the 12 best teams in the rankings.

What schools are in position to make the most of the chance this season? Preseason college football magazine publisher Phil Steele has offered his list of potential surprise teams in 2025.

10. Iowa State

Phil Steele predicts college football's surprise teams in 2025 — Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Iowa State in 2024: 11-3 (7-2 Big 12), conference runner-up

Need to know: Sure, the Cyclones may not completely surprise people this year after playing for the Big 12 title last season, but they have lost key receiver production that should theoretically cut into their offensive output, even with Rocco Becht back at quarterback.

9. SMU

SMU in 2024: 11-3 (8-0 ACC), conference runner-up

Need to know: SMU’s debut in the ACC went very well, running through a clean sheet in conference play and narrowly losing the league title against Clemson, but the Mustangs aren’t projected to make another run, even with quarterback Kevin Jennings returning.

8. Baylor

Baylor in 2024: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)

Need to know: Dave Aranda’s team started 2-4 last season, leading to speculation that his tenure had peaked, but the Bears won their next six games. Sawyer Robertson is back after throwing for over 2,600 yards with 24 touchdowns, along with tailback Bryson Washington, a thousand-yard rusher who had a dozen TDs while posting 6 yards per carry.

7. Nebraska

Nebraska in 2024: 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten)

Need to know: An early season push, a midseason slump, and a late season turnaround proved quite the rollercoaster for young quarterback Dylan Raiola, who returns with Dana Holgorsen calling his plays and some key transfer pickups at wide receiver and along both lines, like former Missouri edge rusher Williams Nwaneri.

6. Arizona State

Arizona State in 2024: 11-3 (7-2 Big 12), conference champion

Need to know: A surprise team, the Sun Devils? Maybe last season, when they were infamously picked to finish last in the Big 12, then won the league title and made the playoff, and with quarterback Sam Leavitt and wideout Jordyn Tyson forming the core of what should be a solid offense.

5. USC

USC in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten)

Need to know: When the offense was good, the defense was bad. Then, when the defense was better, the offense was worse. Some day, Lincoln Riley, who is just 26-14 at USC so far, will get both sides of the ball working together, before the school starts really questioning the huge investment it made in him.

4. Utah

Utah in 2024: 5-7 (2-7 Big 12)

Need to know: Two years removed from winning the Pac-12 title, the Utes have been heading in the wrong direction. Bringing on Devon Dampier at quarterback in tandem with his play caller Jason Beck, a pairing that was very successful at New Mexico, could be the answer working behind Utah’s experienced offensive line.

3. Illinois

Illinois in 2024: 10-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

Need to know: Bret Bielema’s squad could be a sleeper in the Big Ten this season, returning plenty of important contributors like quarterback Luke Alymer and edge rusher Gabe Jacas, and facing an easier schedule, with just Ohio State the major obstacle in a slate that doesn’t include Penn State, Michigan, or Oregon.

2. Texas A&M

Texas A&M in 2024: 8-5 (5-3 SEC)

Need to know: Marcel Reed returns at quarterback, working behind one of college football’s most experienced offensive lines, and aided by a talented skill group of receivers and a backfield that can punch through to a double-digit winning season.

1. Oklahoma

Oklahoma in 2024: 6-7 (2-6 SEC)

Need to know: Six wins isn’t what OU hired Brent Venables for, especially not entering its SEC era, but this season he’ll take over calling the defense, his career calling-card after winning two titles at Clemson in that capacity, and offensive pickups like quarterback John Mateer and tailback Jadyn Ott are huge gets, but the Sooners need to dramatically improve their protection first.