College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 13

Heading into the next Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 13 games.

How is this poll made? Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are slotted not in order of talent like in other traditional rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 13

25. SMU

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.7 games

Off over the weekend, the Mustangs are on a two-game win streak that includes an upset of Miami and sit third in the wild ACC standings with a key date against Louisville coming up before closing at Cal.

24. Auburn

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 5.2 games

ESPN’s computer rankings rank teams by a projected scoring margin, but even by that standard, including Auburn makes little sense. They’re 4-6 and rank in the fifties in terms of margins this season, and are in danger of not finishing bowl eligible in 2025.

23. Washington

Rankings change: Up 3

Win prediction: 8.0 games

A big move up for the Huskies after rebounding from a nasty loss to Wisconsin, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, with a dominant 49-13 performance against Purdue in which Adam Mohammed ran for a personal-best 3 touchdowns. UW is now 4-3 in conference play.

22. LSU

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 7.3 games

Michael Van Buren subbed for Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback, and did just enough to push LSU past Arkansas by one point to snap a three-game losing streak and become bowl eligible. Western Kentucky is next before a trip to Oklahoma in the finale.

21. Iowa

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 7.5 games

The Hawkeyes had a lead over USC on the road in the first half, but didn’t score another point after the intermission while the Trojans put up 16 of their own. Iowa falls to 4-3 in Big Ten play, but still gets a place in ESPN’s rankings despite playing a passing offense that is the third-worst in college football.

20. Penn State

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 5.5 games

ESPN’s ranking model has been in love with the Nittany Lions through it all, keeping them in the top 25 through their six-game losing skid, and they’re sticking by them after they took out an even worse Michigan State team by a 28-10 count.

19. Missouri

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 8.0 games

Losers in three of their previous four and last two straight, the Tigers rebounded with a dominant 49-27 win over Mississippi State as Ahmad Hardy ran for a career-best 300 yards and scored 3 times. Road dates against OU and Arkansas await 7-3 Mizzou.

18. Michigan

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.0 games

There’s concern around an injury to star running back Justice Haynes, the engine of the Wolverines’ offense this season, and without him they needed a last-second field goal to get past Northwestern and improve to 8-2.

17. Vanderbilt

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 9.2 games

Idle this past weekend, the Commodores are coming off that close win over Auburn and have a path to a 10-2 season, but have to get through Kentucky and Tennessee first. They’ll be favored against UK, but the finale could go either way.

16. Tennessee

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.2 games

Joey Aguilar had a touchdown but also 2 interceptions while the Vols scored 4 times on the ground and once on defense to pound New Mexico State in the Cupcake Week game to move to 7-3 with games at Florida and against Vanderbilt to finish out.

15. Oklahoma

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.3 games

Another stifling defensive performance gave the Sooners a critical edge in a massive upset win on the road against SEC title contender Alabama, forcing 3 turnovers, including a pick-six. This plus a road win at Tennessee last time out keeps OU hovering around the playoff bubble against a very tough schedule.

14. BYU

Rankings change: Up 3

Win prediction: 10.8 games

Bear Bachmeier had almost 300 yards passing with a touchdown as the Cougars smashed TCU by a 44-13 count, rebounding from that loss to Texas Tech and staying in second place in a competitive Big 12 with a trip to Cincinnati next and then they host UCF to close out.

13. Ole Miss

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 10.8 games

Kewan Lacy ran 31 times for 224 yards and scored 3 touchdowns as the Rebels finally put away a tough Florida challenger at home amid rumors their head coach could be on their opponent’s sideline next year. At 10-1, Ole Miss is virtually a sure thing for the College Football Playoff at this point.

12. Texas

Rankings change: Down 4

Win prediction: 8.3 games

Arch Manning might be a better quarterback if he had any help from the Longhorns’ run game, which was completely nonexistent against Georgia, averaging 1.2 yards per carry and amassing 19 total yards in an ugly 35-10 loss between the hedges, and this team is likely out of the playoff picture now.

11. Miami

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 9.7 games

Carson Beck was on point, going 21 of 27 with almost 300 yards passing and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions in a rout against NC State to keep the Hurricanes lingering around the better half of a chaotic ACC, but those two other conference losses still loom large and they won’t play at home the rest of the regular season.

10. USC

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.2 games

Jayden Maiava played turnover-free football on 254 yards passing and Bryan Jackson ran for 2 more scores, but the Trojans needed a second-half comeback to take out Iowa, improving to 8-2 with just one loss in Big Ten competition. A massive road test against Oregon is next that could change everything.

9. Texas A&M

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 11.7 games

It looked like the Aggies were down for the count and their undefeated season in peril after falling behind 30-3 against lowly South Carolina, but Marcel Reed and the offense stormed back in a narrow win at home to preserve a top-five ranking in the AP poll and move nearer to their first SEC title game.

8. Texas Tech

Rankings change: Up 3

Win prediction: 11.6 games

Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez scored a touchdown on offense while the ground game churned out 205 yards and 4 other scores to pound UCF at home and stay atop the Big 12 by improving to 10-1 on the season. Just a road trip to West Virginia remains.

7. Utah

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 9.8 games

The Utes’ ground game did all the work here, rumbling for 380 yards and 5 touchdowns, although Devon Dampier threw 2 TD passes on just 13 throws, pounding Baylor by a 55-28 count to move to 8-2 in Big 12 play, still behind the BYU and Texas Tech teams they lost to earlier this season.

6. Alabama

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 10.1 games

Ty Simpson had over 300 yards passing and Daniel Hill ran for 2 touchdowns, but the Crimson Tide’s offense faltered in the face of Oklahoma’s sweltering defense, suffering three turnovers in their second loss of the season, their first in SEC play, and suddenly their playoff chances have taken a late hit.

5. Notre Dame

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.9 games

A tough road test wasn’t so tough after all, as the Irish won their eighth-straight game by taking out ACC hopeful Pittsburgh by a 37-15 count. Jeremiyah Love had 147 yards rushing and a touchdown, and Notre Dame is still in the thick of the College Football Playoff race.

4. Georgia

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 11.2 games

Gunner Stockton had as many incompletions as touchdowns (5) in a nearly-perfect game throwing the football, spearheading an aggressive offensive showing for the Bulldogs, who inch closer to the SEC title game again with a big win over Texas.

3. Oregon

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 10.5 games

Dante Moore threw 2 touchdown passes and Jordon Davison ran for a third score as the Ducks housed Minnesota in a 42-13 decision at home to improve to 9-1 and stay in the thick of the College Football Playoff bubble as a top-ten ranked contender.

2. Indiana

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 12.4 games

Fernando Mendoza had another superb outing, throwing four touchdown passes while completing almost 92 percent of his pass attempts for almost 300 yards to put away Wisconsin by a 31-7 count, stay undefeated, and move closer to a place in the Big Ten Championship Game.

1. Ohio State

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 12.3 games

Julian Sayin hit on 74 percent of his passes, but the Buckeyes’ ground attack played a more solid game this time, stacking up 222 yards with 4 touchdowns to put away UCLA by a big number with dates against Rutgers and at Michigan all that remain.

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 13

25. SMU

24. Auburn

23. Washington

22. LSU

21. Iowa

20. Penn State

19. Missouri

18. Michigan

17. Vanderbilt

16. Tennessee

15. Oklahoma

14. BYU

13. Ole Miss

12. Texas

11. Miami

10. USC

9. Texas A&M

8. Texas Tech

7. Utah

6. Alabama

5. Notre Dame

4. Georgia

3. Oregon

2. Indiana

1. Ohio State

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