Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Playoff Semifinal

Iain MacMillan | Jan 5, 2026

Miami is favored against Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff semifinal. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Few college football fans would have predicted that one of the two College Football Playoff semifinals would feature a showdown between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels, but here we are.

Many people believed Miami didn't deserve a spot in the playoffs after regular-season losses to Louisville and SMU, but due to some strange results in the final weeks of the season, the Hurricanes were given the nod. Meanwhile, Ole Miss certainly deserved a spot in the playoff after suffering just one loss this season, but few people gave the Rebels a legitimate chance of winning it all after their head coach, Lane Kiffin, left the team to accept the job at LSU.

Despite the obstacles placed in front of the team, the winner of their game on Thursday night will advance to the National Championship.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Miami -3.5 (-108)
• Ole Miss +3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Miami -178
• Ole Miss +146

Total

• OVER 51.5 (-115)
• UNDER 51.5 (-105)

Miami vs. Ole Miss How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, January 8
• Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Venue: State Farm Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Miami Record: 12-2
• Indiana Record: 13-1

Miami vs. Ole Miss Betting Trends

• Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
• The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last five games
• Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
• Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. ACC opponents

Miami vs. Ole Miss Key Player to Watch

• Trinidad Chambliss, QB - Ole Miss Rebels

Trinidad Chambliss has been fantastic in the playoffs. He was unbelievable against Georgia, completing 30-of-46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns while adding 14 yards on the ground against the Bulldogs. If he puts up similar numbers against Miami, the Rebels are going to be hard to beat.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

You can run the ball against this Ole Miss defense, but unfortunately for the Hurricanes, they are a pass-first team, which means they can't attack Ole Miss where the Rebels are vulnerable. That means for the third straight week, Ole Miss is going to have the advantage when it comes to the stylistic matchup.

Miami ranks outside the top 15 in both opponent EPA per dropback and opponent dropback success rate, which could lead to yet another strong performance by Trinidad Chambliss, the Ole Miss quarterback.

There are a lot of unknowns in this game, but it's clear at this point we shouldn't discount Ole Miss just because of its coaching situation. I'll take the points with the Rebels in this one.

Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 (-112) via FanDuel

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