College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 6

Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 6 games.

It was a Statement Saturday across the country as several ranked teams faced off head-to-head in marquee matchups in the SEC and Big Ten, with the contenders separating themselves from the pretenders and putting some distance between themselves in the very early conference championship and playoff races.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 6

25. TCU

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 8.1 games

Undefeated no more, the Horned Frogs dropped their first game of the season on the road against unranked, reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State, falling to 0-1 in conference play, but they did enough to stay in the ESPN rankings this week with a date against Colorado next.

24. Florida State

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.8 games

Some of the early season shine was taken off the Seminoles, who failed the first road test of their season in a double overtime loss at unranked Virginia, losing their 22nd straight game when trailing by multiple touchdowns, not the best frame of mind for this team heading into a monster ACC matchup against undefeated rival Miami next weekend.

23. Auburn

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 6.8 games

Auburn turned out just 176 total yards, the lowest in Hugh Freeze’s tenure as head coach, in a six-point loss at Texas A&M to fall to 0-2 in SEC play, a performance that included a mere 52 rushing yards in an offense that failed to convert any of its 13 third-down chances. Off next week, the Tigers get Georgia after that.

22. Utah

Rankings change: Up 6

Win prediction: 8.5 games

Coming off that disappointing loss at home to Texas Tech in the Big 12 opener last time out, the Utes responded well by hammering West Virginia on the road in a 48-14 result as Devon Dampier threw a personal-best 4 touchdown passes, but an interesting stretch is coming against Arizona State and then on the road against BYU.

21. Nebraska

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.5 games

Dylan Raiola commands college football’s fifth-ranked passing offense, averaging almost 352 yards per game, but the Cornhuskers struggled to run the ball or stop the run, especially in their 3-point loss to Michigan a week ago. Coming off their idle weekend, the Huskers get another shot in Big Ten play at home against Michigan State.

20. Texas Tech

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 10.2 games

Off this past weekend, the Red Raiders are riding high after a statement win at Utah that established them as the favorites in a competitive Big 12 title picture, and now they’re set to return this coming Saturday on the road against a Houston team that is 4-0 after escaping in a close result at winless Oregon State this week.

19. LSU

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 7.9 games

More pressing questions will surround the performance of LSU’s offense after scoring just 19 points in a five-point loss at Ole Miss. Undefeated no more, the complete absence of a rushing attack has reduced this offense to one dimension. LSU ranked 112th in rushing coming into this game, and adding 57 yards in a loss won’t help that meager average.

18. BYU

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.8 games

Bear Bachmeier threw 2 touchdown passes while completing 19 of his 27 pass attempts and the Cougars recovered from an early 14-0 deficit to rally in a 24-21 victory on the road against Colorado to improve to 4-0 on the season with a nice 1-0 start in Big 12 play, sinking Coach Prime’s squad to 0-2 in conference in the process. A date at home against reeling West Virginia is next for the Big 12 title hopefuls.

17. Missouri

Rankings change: Down 3

Win prediction: 8.8 games

Beau Pribula completed 90 percent of his passes with a touchdown while Ahmad Hardy ran for 130 yards and 3 touchdowns to smash UMass and improve to 5-0 heading into an off week before taking on Alabama at home.

16. Texas A&M

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.2 games

Le’Veon Moss ran for 139 yards and a touchdown and Marcel Reed had 207 yards passing as the Aggies kicked off SEC play with a gritty 16-10 victory in which their defense held Auburn to 176 total yards of offense, the lowest in Hugh Freeze’s tenure as head coach.

15. Oklahoma

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 8.3 games

One of several teams off this past Saturday, the Sooners welcomed the off day in order to give quarterback John Mateer more time to heal from the surprise hand surgery he was forced to undergo. Next week is one last tune-up against Kent State before the Texas game and the rest of a brutal SEC schedule right to the end of the season.

14. Vanderbilt

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 8.7 games

Another banner week for the Commodores, as Diego Pavia accounted for 6 all-purpose touchdowns in a 55-35 win over Utah State, moving Vandy to a perfect 5-0 record for the first time since 2008 and with a big date at Alabama up next looking for another upset.

13. Tennessee

Rankings change: Down 4

Win prediction: 8.9 games

Joey Aguilar ran for a touchdown and threw another and the Vols had two 100-yard receivers on the day, but needed a 14-point fourth quarter and the overtime to get past what looks like a much-improved Mississippi State team, improving to 1-1 in SEC play.

12. Michigan

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.1 games

This may not be the most potent aerial attack in college football, ranking 106th in passing output, but the Wolverines’ 11th ranked rushing offense took care of business in a win at Nebraska last weekend, and now UM comes out of the idle week with a home date against Wisconsin.

11. Penn State

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 8.7 games

There are yet more questions around the ability of Drew Allar to put the Nittany Lions’ offense on his back. The five-star quarterback was a liability for the team for most of the night and ultimately threw the game-losing pick in a double-overtime loss to Oregon. Even PSU’s star backs were held to a combined 75 yards. James Franklin falls to 4-21 against AP top 10 ranked opponents in his career, and 2-21 against top-six foes.

10. USC

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.6 games

Still in a decent position in ESPN’s margin-based rankings this week owing to its previous dominant victories, the Trojans nonetheless failed an important road test after falling to Illinois on a last-second field goal despite a career day from wideout Makai Lemon, and once again this USC defense is the center of yet more criticism.

9. Miami

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 11.3 games

The new favorite in the ACC title picture, the Hurricanes took Saturday off following an important 26-7 win over rival Florida the weekend prior, and now heads into a big road trip against another rival in Florida State, itself coming off a surprise loss this week.

8. Ole Miss

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 10.5 games

Another marquee victory for Lane Kiffin in his Ole Miss coaching tenure, as the program recorded its first win over a top-five ranked LSU team since 1965. Trinidad Chambliss has been a revelation since stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, eclipsing 300 yards passing, while the Rebels added 2 rushing touchdowns to move to 5-0 and 3-0 in SEC play.

7. Georgia

Rankings change: Down 3

Win prediction: 9.2 games

For the 10th time in the last 11 meetings against Alabama, the Bulldogs couldn’t get it done. Chauncey Bowens ran for 119 yards and a touchdown, but otherwise the offense didn’t build much momentum and Georgia’s defense, for years such an overpowering unit, failed to play up to its usual standard in a three-point loss. Kirby Smart is now 1-7 against the Tide.

6. Notre Dame

Rankings change: Up 7

Win prediction: 9.1 games

CJ Carr matched a school freshman record with 4 touchdown passes and Jeremiyah Love became the first Notre Dame player to both catch and run for 2 touchdowns each as the Golden Domers laid a 53-16 whipping on the road against Arkansas, improving to 2-2 on the year and still clinging to their playoff hopes with Boise State up next.

5. Indiana

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 10.6 games

Coming off that fabulous win over Illinois, the Hoosiers nearly stepped into a trip at Iowa, throwing haymakers in a low-scoring battle before Fernando Mendoza broke through the Hawkeyes’ defense with a long touchdown for Elijah Sarratt, and Indiana is 16-2 since the start of last season and 2-0 in Big Ten play.

4. Texas

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 9.0 games

Idle this past weekend, the Longhorns got improved play from Arch Manning in a 55-0 rout against Sam Houston the week before, but now they get a much stiffer test as they hit the road against Florida in their SEC opener this coming Saturday.

3. Alabama

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.4 games

Alabama and second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer were up against a wall coming into this weekend, already with that loss to Florida State and in danger of falling to 2-2, but Ty Simpson hit 2 touchdowns and ran for a third in an efficient night to prevent the worst and come out of Athens with a signature victory to build from.

2. Ohio State

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 11.1 games

Julian Sayin remains college football’s most efficient quarterback, hitting on nearly 79 percent of his pass attempts for 2 touchdowns as the Buckeyes returned from their idle week with a clean 24-6 win against a good Washington team in their Big Ten opener. CJ Donaldson had 2 all-purpose TDs and Jeremiah Smith scored once.

1. Oregon

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 11.2 games

Dante Moore hit 29 of 39 passes and 3 touchdowns to pull out a signature double-overtime victory at Penn State in a statement to propel the Ducks into the forefront of the national championship conversation. That was more than enough for Oregon to maintain its place atop the ESPN rankings this week but there is a huge test against insurgent Indiana up next on Oct. 11.

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 6

25. TCU

24. Florida State

23. Auburn

22. Utah

21. Nebraska

20. Texas Tech

19. LSU

18. BYU

17. Missouri

16. Texas A&M

15. Oklahoma

14. Vanderbilt

13. Tennessee

12. Michigan

11. Penn State

10. USC

9. Miami

8. Ole Miss

7. Georgia

6. Notre Dame

5. Indiana

4. Texas

3. Alabama

2. Ohio State

1. Oregon

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