College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 9

Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 9 games.

Chaos Saturday resulted in some major changes across the college football rankings, as nine ranked teams lost their games, including four in the top 10 this past weekend.

How is this poll made? Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are slotted not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 9

25. Louisville

Rankings change: Up 12

Win prediction: 9.4 games

The now 5-1 Cardinals had a perfect game plan in a marquee upset win over Miami, bottling their run game and generating four interceptions from Carson Beck in a win that could go quite a long way in rewriting the ACC championship narrative and maybe the shape of the College Football Playoff.

But it was after that when the ESPN rankings got decidedly weird...

24. Iowa

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 7.6 games

In a game where passing offense was strictly optional and no one took the option, the Hawkeyes ran for 245 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 of which came from quarterback Mark Gronowski, to put away Penn State, improving to 5-2 overall with a 3-1 mark in Big Ten play.

23. Auburn

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 5.7 games

Another curious and frankly indefensible decision by the ESPN computer rankings, somehow a 3-4 Auburn team that is winless in SEC competition is still in the top 25, and even moved up a spot despite losing at home to Missouri and playing some of college football’s worst offense for a coach who seems like he’s about to be fired.

22. Washington

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.2 games

A loss on the road against Michigan brings the Huskies down to 5-2 overall with a 2-2 record in Big Ten competition, as Demond Williams threw 2 picks in a span of 4 passes and then a third on his next drive. Tough games against Illinois and Oregon are ahead.

21. Penn State

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 5.7 games

Penn State? Here is where the ESPN computers might want to rethink their prediction models. In a baffling decision, the Nittany Lions are not only still ranked after losing their fourth-straight game, but placed above the Iowa team that just beat them. So many other more deserving teams could be in these rankings, but the FPI model still insists on keeping this clunker in the top 25.

20. LSU

Rankings change: Down 3

Win prediction: 7.8 games

It feels like the Brian Kelly era has taken a turn for the worse, falling to 5-2 after a loss at Vanderbilt that doesn’t really feel that surprising, and now LSU, a preseason SEC title hopeful and playoff contender on paper, faces two huge tests against Texas A&M and Alabama that could send their season into a complete tailspin if they’re not careful.

19. BYU

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 10.4 games

Bear Bachmeier tacked on a late touchdown with his legs and the Cougars added over 200 rushing yards in a crucial win over arch-rival Utah in the Holy War game to stay undefeated and stop the Big 12 standings entering the second half of the season.

18. Vanderbilt

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.8 games

The bookies were adamant that Vandy was the favorite heading into a home game against LSU and once again they were proven right in a result that saw Diego Pavia account for 3 total touchdowns, helping the Commodores to a second win against an AP ranked opponent this season.

17. Missouri

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.9 games

Make it 22 straight wins against unranked opponents, but Mizzou’s offense didn’t play up to its usual standard and needed two overtime periods to finally put Auburn away.

16. Michigan

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 8.7 games

A much better defensive performance in a 24-7 win over Washington after the Wolverines struggled to contain USC in a loss a week ago, intercepting passes on consecutive drives and turning them into touchdowns, but this offense still hasn’t really found an identity yet.

15. Utah

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 8.8 games

Devon Dampier led two fourth quarter touchdown drives, but it wasn’t enough to get past rival BYU, falling to 2-2 in Big 12 play and 5-2 overall, still apparently enough to warrant inclusion in the ESPN computer rankings this week.

14. Oklahoma

Rankings change: Up 6

Win prediction: 8.5 games

The Sooners’ superb defense generated two takeaways and the ground game looked improved in a dominant 26-7 victory on the road against South Carolina to improve to 2-1 in SEC play, but the road ahead is long and hard, with all five of OU’s remaining opponents currently ranked, including consecutive road dates against Tennessee and Alabama.

13. Tennessee

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.6 games

College football’s top-ranked scoring offense couldn’t find quite as many angles against a determined Alabama defense in what became the Vols’ second loss of the season, scoring just 20 points and giving the playoff selectors another reason to pass them over later on if it comes to that.

12. Texas Tech

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 10.4 games

One of several previously undefeated teams to lose their first game this weekend, the Big 12 favorite Red Raiders stormed back to take a fourth quarter lead, but it ultimately wasn’t enough to hold off reigning Big 12 champ Arizona State on the road, scoring fewer than 32 points for the first time this year.

11. Ole Miss

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 9.8 games

For a while, it appeared Lane Kiffin was well on his way towards another career victory and would make it two-straight against Georgia, as the Rebels put on a show on offense, but they couldn’t do enough to thwart the Bulldogs’ comeback bid between the hedges, losing their first game of the season and go into a road date against Oklahoma next.

10. Texas A&M

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 10.2 games

Following a long weather delay, the Aggies put on another show in a close win at Arkansas, improving to 7-0 overall for the first time since 1994, and emerging as the last undefeated team in the SEC following Ole Miss’ loss at Georgia. Two more road games await the Aggies, at LSU and then Missouri.

9. Miami

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 10.2 games

Another sign of the newfound parity in college football, the Hurricanes were nearly two touchdown favorites at home against unranked Louisville, but Friday night proved another curse for a highly-ranked team, as Carson Beck threw four picks, including the game-loser, to throw a monkey wrench into the ACC favorite’s season in mid-October.

8. USC

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 8.6 games

Just when the Trojans took one important step forward, they took another one back. Coming off the win against Michigan a week ago, they were unable to match Notre Dame in the end. Taking a late lead, they allowed the Irish to add a 100-yard score to give it right back, and now Southern Cal is at 2 losses.

7. Texas

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.5 games

Another impotent offensive showing for the Longhorns and clunky quarterback Arch Manning, who finished with 132 yards passing while averaging less than 5 yards per pass, but they did enough to escape Kentucky with a 16-13 victory and move to 2-1 in SEC competition.

6. Georgia

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 10.2 games

Some questions emerge once again about the quality of a Georgia defense that has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush from the front seven, but they got enough stops eventually and the offense came alive in the second half to edge out Ole Miss by a 43-35 count and avoid a second loss heading into the Cocktail Party.

5. Notre Dame

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 9.7 games

Jeremiyah Love pounded through the USC line for 228 rushing yards as the Golden Domers picked up their fifth-straight win since that 0-2 start. It’s the most yards any Irish back ever had playing in the house that Rockne built, since 1930, and helps keep the Irish in the thick of the playoff picture.

4. Indiana

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 11.8 games

Only a lightning delay slowed down the Hoosiers’ offense, as Fernando Mendoza threw 4 touchdown passes and led 75 yard drives on three of their first four scoring possessions, and this unit is averaging nearly 45 points per game following a rout at Michigan State to stay undefeated and not projected to play another ranked team in 2025.

3. Alabama

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 10.7 games

Ty Simpson pitched another beautiful game, covering 253 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions while Jam Miller and Daniel Hill ran for scores and Zabien Brown ran back a pick-six for 99 yards to help the Tide put away rival Tennessee, their fourth-straight win over a ranked SEC opponent this year.

2. Oregon

Rankings change: Up 3

Win prediction: 10.3 games

Dante Moore led an offense that scored 42 points in just the first half and ultimately piled up over 750 total yards in a demolition on the road against outmatched Rutgers to stay right in the thick of the Big Ten title picture, and are not expected to play another ranked team for the rest of the regular season.

1. Ohio State

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 12.1 games

Coming off a 34-0 win at Wisconsin, college football’s reigning national champion has allowed just 41 total points through seven games, the best start by any team in the FBS in that span since 1993, and the last four programs to surrender fewer than 50 points in 7 games played for the national title.

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