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College Football Rankings: Projecting the New AP Top 25 Poll After Week 4

Who is moving up and down the AP top 25 college football rankings as the month of September comes to a close with a pile of consequential games that will shake up the poll.
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Playing a half dozen games with ranked teams on both sides of the same field was bound to force AP top 25 voters into some major changes when compiling the new college football rankings heading into next weekend, and Saturday didn’t disappoint.

One decision they won’t have to make? The No. 1 position, which should stay in place after Texas survived a critical road test in the SEC opener at Tennessee, winning behind a ferocious defensive effort that resulted in 10 sacks, but could use a little consistency and discipline on the offensive side of the ball.

Projecting the New AP Top 25 College Football Rankings

Dropping out: No. 16 Louisville, No. 18 Michigan, No. 23 Texas A&M

College Football Rankings: Predicting the New AP Top 25 Poll for Week 5
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25. Virginia Tech. Voters have some leeway in looking for new teams with all the losers across the board, and the 4-0 Hokies could get a promotion after earning 46 votes a week ago.

24. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys just beat West Virginia and their previous win against Oregon looks even better now after the Ducks beat a ranked USC on the road.

23. Boise State. The Broncos look like the class of the Group of Six, scoring over 30 points in all their wins, which include solid showings against Memphis and now Western Michigan.

22. Penn State. It’s possible that voters drop the Nittany Lions out entirely after losing at home to unranked Wisconsin, but they may not think enough of the other candidates to give them a promotion over this one-loss team.

21. Missouri. Eli Drinkwitz’s team rebounded from a 2 touchdown deficit to make it a game at Mississippi State, but surrendered 14 unanswered points late and now the Tigers are set to host undefeated Florida.

Big Ten, SEC losers expected to drop

College Football Rankings: Predicting the New AP Top 25 Poll for Week 5
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20. Houston. Conner Weigman threw 4 TD passes and ran for 2 more scores to pull away from Georgia Southern and maintain the Cougars’ place on the right side of the top 25 this week.

19. SMU. Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs offense outgained Missouri State by plenty but also had 2 turnovers that kept this game closer than most expected.

18. USC. Losing at home to Oregon was exactly what Lincoln Riley didn’t need at this point in his tenure, but AP voters will consider the quality of their opponent and not punish his Trojans, 12th last week, too much.

17. Tennessee. The Vols’ offense needs a Page 1 rewrite on how to protect the quarterback after allowing 10 sacks and a dozen tackles for loss to drop the SEC opener against No. 1 Texas.

16. Mississippi State. An exciting back-and-forth between two ranked SEC teams, but Kamario Taylor found some momentum late to take down Missouri and keep the Bulldogs undefeated after four games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1944-45.

The Middle of the Pack

College Football Rankings: Predicting the New AP Top 25 Poll for Week 5
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15. Oregon. Dylan Raiola looks the part of a starter after going in for the injured Dante Moore and leading six scoring drives against another generous USC defense and preserving the Ducks’ postseason ambitions.

14. Iowa. Despite Michigan controlling most of the game at the Big House, the Hawkeyes pulled through with a last-second touchdown.

13. Utah. Wayshawn Parker went for 54 yards on the first play and had a personal-best outing to help beat Iowa State on the road by 2 touchdowns.

12. Texas Tech. Austin Romaine had two pick-sixes and the Red Raiders’ offense overcame its own turnover woes to score 28 unanswered points and pull away from Sam Houston.

11. LSU. Needing to avoid a second-straight loss, the Tigers took it out on Texas A&M in a 36-5 result.

Rounding Out the New Top Ten

College Football Rankings: Predicting the New AP Top 25 Poll for Week 5
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10. Ole Miss. Pollsters will dish out a punishment for allowing 52 points against Florida, but the Rebels should have a cushion with last week’s win against LSU.

9. Florida. AP pollsters are faced with quite a decision after the Gators rolled up 302 rushing yards and 6 TDs on the ground to smash No. 4 Ole Miss. 

8. BYU. The Cougars were off this past weekend and will continue Big 12 play next Saturday with a road test against TCU.

7. Alabama. Keelon Russell had 5 total TDs and the Crimson Tide have scored 40-plus points in every game this season after smacking South Carolina and heading into a road test against Mississippi State.

6. Ohio State. Jeremiah Smith keeps setting Buckeye records, this time scoring 4 times in a rout against Illinois to begin Big Ten competition.

The Best of the Best

College Football Rankings: Predicting the New AP Top 25 Poll for Week 5
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5. Miami. Darian Mensah broke some more passing records as the Hurricanes easily put away Central Michigan, enough to stay put in the rankings but likely not enough to see a rise with other more consequential wins taking place this weekend.

4. Indiana. Turbo Richard was injured, although not seriously so, but the Hoosiers’ offense didn’t look as potent as it should in a close win over Northwestern to begin conference play heading into a two-game road trip against Rutgers and Nebraska.

3. Notre Dame. Another romp against Purdue should fortify the Irish position near the top of the rankings once again as they go to North Carolina next.

2. Georgia. Oklahoma’s quarterback was more than obliging, handing over some giveaways that turned into touchdowns, and the Bulldogs dominated by scoring 41 points and winning by 4 touchdowns.

1. Texas. Arch Manning said he didn’t play well enough, but the Longhorns’ defense picked up the slack, carving up the Tennessee offense in a key road win to open SEC play and going into an idle week before taking on languishing Oklahoma.

AP Top 25 Movers: College Football Teams Going Up, Down in Week 5

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James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.