ESPN computer ranks SEC football teams worst to first for Week 11

Conference races are heating up as the 2025 college football season moves into the month of November, and arguably none are more consequential than what happens in the SEC, with several teams angling for attention on the road to Atlanta.

Coming into an important Week 11 slate, where do things stand in the SEC football power rankings? For that, let’s turn to the College Football Power Index.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

SEC football power rankings for Week 11

16. Arkansas

National ranking: No. 41

Win prediction: 2.8 games

Not much has gone right for the Razorbacks, who ultimately parted ways with head coach Sam Pittman, on a seven-game losing streak since starting 2-0 with no SEC wins and not projected to win another game the rest of the way in 2025.

15. South Carolina

National ranking: No. 39

Win prediction: 4.6 games

A disappointing follow-up for the Gamecocks from last season’s success, but the computer models forecast up to two more wins in their final three games, including notably as a 57 percent favorite against rival Clemson in the finale.

14. Kentucky

National ranking: No. 50

Win prediction: 4.8 games

Kentucky is just 1-5 in SEC competition this year, bringing Mark Stoops to 29-67 in conference play during his tenure, and while UK should be favored against Tennessee Tech, it likely will not be against Florida, Vanderbilt, or Louisville, the latter two on the road.

13. Florida

National ranking: No. 25

Win prediction: 4.8 games

The models also see a path to two more wins for the Gators, likely against Kentucky on the road this weekend and perhaps in the finale against Florida State, but they’re underdogs against Ole Miss and Tennessee.

12. Auburn

National ranking: No. 27

Win prediction: 5.5 games

This is the 120th ranked offense in college football and its 104th best scoring attack, losing five of its last six games with that sole win being the only time it eclipsed 20 points. A road date at Vanderbilt and the Iron Bowl are yet to come, with what should be a win against Mercer, albeit under new management after Hugh Freeze was given the boot.

11. Mississippi State

National ranking: No. 40

Win prediction: 5.7 games

The Bulldogs stopped a four-game losing skid by winning its first SEC game the last time out, against Arkansas, but that might be it, with Georgia, Missouri, and Ole Miss remaining on this tough schedule.

10. LSU

National ranking: No. 21

Win prediction: 7.2 games

The models like the now Brian Kelly-less Tigers to come out on top against Arkansas and Western Kentucky, but expect at least two more losses, this week at Alabama and in the finale at Oklahoma.

9. Tennessee

National ranking: No. 15

Win prediction: 8.1 games

The loss against Oklahoma drags the Vols to a bad 3-3 mark in SEC play and effectively ended their College Football Playoff hopes, but the index likes them against New Mexico State obviously and over Florida, but not against rival Vanderbilt notably.

8. Missouri

National ranking: No. 18

Win prediction: 8.2 games

It’s all SEC games the rest of the way for Mizzou, and they’ll likely have to do it without quarterback Beau Pribula after his injury. Games against Mississippi State and Arkansas are likely wins, but not opposite Texas A&M and Oklahoma, according to this model.

7. Oklahoma

National ranking: No. 16

Win prediction: 8.5 games

Some confidence in the Sooners coming off that huge win at Tennessee, with the model favoring them against Missouri and at home to LSU, but likely not in a key road date against rising Alabama. A loss there likely ends OU’s playoff hopes, but otherwise this finish looks better than it did a few weeks ago.

6. Texas

National ranking: No. 8

Win prediction: 8.9 games

That massive win over Vanderbilt moves the Longhorns to a solid 4-1 mark in SEC play and the model currently favors them against Arkansas and even over Texas A&M in the finale, but expects one more loss, at Georgia next weekend.

5. Vanderbilt

National ranking: No. 17

Win prediction: 9.0 games

Ahead of Texas in the SEC rankings despite losing that game, but behind them in the national poll, another peculiarity of the ESPN prediction model. Vandy’s road to an SEC title got a lot narrower after last week’s loss, but there’s a path to win their three remaining games.

4. Georgia

National ranking: No. 6

Win prediction: 10.3 games

The model’s win projection seems low here, but is giving Texas a fighting chance in their game in Athens in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the Bulldogs should be favored against Mississippi State, Charlotte, and Georgia Tech and be in the mix for the SEC title again.

3. Ole Miss

National ranking: No. 13

Win prediction: 10.5 games

The model’s national ranking versus the SEC ranking for the Rebels is a head-scratcher, but what isn’t is the fact that they should be an easy favorite the rest of the way, against The Citadel, Florida, and at Mississippi State, although the loss to Georgia could play a role in who gets to Atlanta.

2. Alabama

National ranking: No. 4

Win prediction: 10.9 games

Perfect in SEC play and college football’s only team with four wins against ranked opponents, the Crimson Tide are on a roll and could conceivably win out against LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois, and at Auburn.

1. Texas A&M

National ranking: No. 9

Win prediction: 11 games

The highest win total projection among SEC teams according to the index belongs to the league’s last undefeated team. They’ve won close and in routs, but face two notable challenges, this week at Missouri and then in the finale against rival Texas that could define this team’s season for better or worse.