ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish entering Week 4 games

Conference play is starting to ramp up across the country as college football nears the first complete month of the 2025 season, and that includes some consequential action across the SEC already, but with much more important games yet to come.

Ole Miss became the first SEC team to go 2-0 in conference play, while five teams are already down 0-1 against league opponents, including Tennessee and Florida.

How are things shaping up in the SEC power rankings and when it comes to the very early conference championship projections going forward?

For that, let’s turn to the ESPN College Football Power Index prediction model.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

SEC predicted order of finish in Week 4

16. Florida. After stumbling to a 1-2 mark following losses to USF and LSU, suddenly the Gators own the SEC’s lowest win total projection behind a lackluster offense that has failed to exploit DJ Lagway’s potential at quarterback, and now they have just a 17.7 percent chance to even finish bowl eligible.

Win prediction: 4.2 games

15. Kentucky. Once again, the Wildcats’ offense is a mystery, scoring just 24 points against Toledo and ranking 111th nationally in passing output, and already with a loss to Ole Miss on the books, despite the superb play of its defensive rotation in that game.

Win prediction: 5.3 games

14. South Carolina. Falling to 2-1 last weekend after a surprising 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks are sitting near the SEC basement as one of three teams with a zero percent chance to win the conference championship, and now quarterback LaNorris Sellers is dealing with a new head injury.

Win prediction: 5.4 games

13. Mississippi State. Working behind an offense that has improved its statistical output so far, the Bulldogs own a huge upset win over Big 12 champion Arizona State and sit at 3-0, but the schedule against SEC opponents gets much, much harder in the weeks to come.

Win prediction: 5.7 games

12. Arkansas. This looks like one of the more explosive offenses in the country right now after putting up over 500 yards in a loss to Ole Miss last week, and the Razorbacks improved their chance at a bowl with a 69.3 percent chance to get to six wins.

Win prediction: 6.2 games

11. Auburn. Undefeated through three games and getting good play from new quarterback Jackson Arnold and a crew of talented receivers, Auburn will face by far its toughest test of the season on the road against Oklahoma this weekend.

Win prediction: 7.5 games

10. LSU. A dismal ranking for the Tigers despite their 3-0 start and especially considering the quality of their defense, but the ESPN models place a heavy premium on expected margin of victory, and this offense doesn’t look up to it just yet, with a 2 percent chance at the SEC championship right now.

Win prediction: 8.1 games

9. Vanderbilt. A nice jump for the Commodores this week after a demonstrative victory at South Carolina on the back of Diego Pavia’s play and that of a strong ground attack, virtually assured of a place in bowl season at this rate at 98.6 percent, but a tough SEC schedule awaits against an expected five straight ranked opponents and 6 total.

Win prediction: 8.2 games

8. Oklahoma. So far, so good for John Mateer piloting what looks like an improved offense and Brent Venables’ management of the defense has this unit looking like its old self, already with a big win over Michigan heading into the SEC opener against Auburn.

Win prediction: 8.2 games

7. Texas. One of the SEC teams falling in these rankings this week despite their being 2-1, given the subpar play of quarterback Arch Manning that has this offense not quite playing up to its potential, but the Longhorns’ defense is in midseason form.

Win prediction: 8.5 games

6. Alabama. Kalen DeBoer’s squad has recovered for the time being against UL Monroe and Wisconsin after the season-opening loss at Florida State, but tougher matchups lie ahead, especially next week in a critical road test at Georgia.

Win prediction: 8.6 games

5. Tennessee. Despite the loss at home to Georgia, by just three points, the Vols are still in position to get somewhere special with Joey Aguilar at the helm at quarterback, ranking fifth in the conference with a 31.2 percent chance to win the championship.

Win prediction: 8.7 games

4. Missouri. A big mover in the SEC pecking order early this season, the Tigers are getting superb returns from a dynamic duo in quarterback Beau Pribula and tailback Ahmad Hardy, the foundations in an offense that ranks 9th in college football by averaging just under 52 points per game.

Win prediction: 8.7 games

3. Texas A&M. ESPN’s models are pushing the Aggies up the rankings both in the SEC and nationally after a statement one-point win at Notre Dame, proving that Marcel Reed is a consistent downfield threat throwing the ball as he carved up a good Irish secondary.

Win prediction: 8.7 games

2. Ole Miss. In second place in the early SEC championship projections, the Rebels sit at 16.6 percent odds to win the league title after emerging as the first team to play and win two games in conference, even getting solid play from their backup quarterback after Austin Simmons dealt with a minor ailment last weekend.

Win prediction: 10.0 games

1. Georgia. The reigning SEC champions played themselves back into contention to repeat after a signature road win at Tennessee in which quarterback Gunner Stockton finally grew up at the position, according to head coach Kirby Smart, putting the Bulldogs in pole position to get back to Atlanta early on.

Win prediction: 10.0 games

SEC predicted order of finish in Week 4

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