Why the NCAA transfer portal has made five-star QBs the worst investment in college football

The NCAA transfer portal officially closes on Jan. 16, and has seen over 10,000 players across levels enter their names.

Whether they are chasing playing time, following a coach, or, in many cases, a bigger payday, there are all sorts of reasons someone enters their name into the portal. The transfer portal launched in 2018 with the primary goal of serving as a database to track who was on the move.

It wasn't until 2021 that the NCAA allowed players to transfer once without sitting out, and that rule was expanded to unlimited transfers with no penalty in 2024.

Amid the chaos and the many lessons learned about the portal, there is one trend that seems to be growing more and more prevalent. It centers around five-star quarterback recruits, who by all accounts seem to be the most risky investment in college football as a result of the transfer portal and player movement.

A December report from The Athletic confirmed that five-star quarterback recruits are paid anywhere from $750,000 to $1 million a year, but we have also seen a player like Bryce Underwood ink a reported $10 million deal.

While landing a five-star quarterback recruit gives fans something to be excited about, projects well for the program's future and can attract more top recruits, the sample size of recruiting classes dating back to 2021 clearly indicates it will lead to a poor return on investment.

Using the Rivals recruiting rankings, in the 2021-25 classes, there were 21 five-star quarterback recruits. That means there were 21 players who were expected to be the next great superstar for the program, all well before we ever saw them play a down of college football.

This group ranges from names such as Quinn Ewers (2021), who started his career at Ohio State, after being paid $1.4 million to leave high school early, to Nico Iamaleava (2023), who went to Tennessee on a then-historic $8 million deal.

Despite these large figures, they, like most other quarterbacks in the classification, did not finish their careers at the schools with which they initially signed. Of the 21 five-star players in those classes, 15 (71.4%) transferred at least once. Two of those 15 transferred after a couple of weeks on campus: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele left Oregon for Cal to pursue playing time, and Julian Sayin left Alabama for Ohio State due to Nick Saban's retirement.

Even if you do not want to count those two in the total, 61.9% of the players on the list have transferred at least once. In this year's portal cycle alone, notable names such as Husan Longstreet (LSU), DJ Lagway (Baylor) and Deuce Knight (Ole Miss) became the latest former five-stars to transfer. Two of these three didn't serve as the primary starter, with Longstreet leaving USC for playing time and ending up as a backup at LSU behind Sam Leavitt.

Now, what is there to make of this data? Aside from the fact that roughly 28% of five-star quarterbacks since 2021 haven't transferred, there seems to be a clear change in strategy from some of college football's biggest contenders.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with Southern California Trojans quarterback Husan Longstreet (4). | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Albeit with a small sample size, given that this year's title features both teams with a transfer at quarterback, the two most recent champions will have had a transfer at quarterback. To take it a step further, seven of the eight most recent semifinalists have had a transfer quarterback, with the lone team that didn't being Penn State, which had one of the rare returning five-star quarterback recruits.

It is also worth noting that programs like Oregon, Miami and Indiana have all essentially committed to finding their quarterback via the transfer portal. Oregon hasn't had a home-grown transfer as its primary starter since Tyler Shough in 2020. Miami has gotten its last two quarterbacks from the portal, and reportedly offered Ty Simpson $6.5 million to take his name out of the draft to transfer. Despite him saying no, the Hurricanes are still widely expected to poach a quarterback via the portal.

Indiana has burst onto the scene as a new-age powerhouse under Curt Cignetti, posting a 26-2 record while leading the team to the title game this season. While Indiana's recruiting will see an uptick, Cignetti has had a transfer portal quarterback at the helm both years and has already locked in Josh Hoover (TCU) as his starter for next year.

All of this is to say that college football as a sport seems to be trending toward a place where being the program to land a five-star quarterback recruit out of high school could be the worst spot to be in. It's already rare for them to live up to the billing, but now it's almost an anomaly if they stick around.

So, the question programs really need to ask themselves is whether it is worth spending millions on a player who is likely to leave the program in a year.

Until there is a systemic change that prevents players from moving so frequently, five-star quarterbacks will remain the most volatile asset in college football.

For programs looking to contend for titles or even to have relative success, unless they have a perfect scenario where the coach isn't on the hot seat, the five-star will play right away, and they can pay him top dollar, it may be best to no longer play in the five-star sweepstakes at the quarterback position.

In reality, programs are always going to take a chance and hope they hit on the next Simpson or Arch Manning, who is both good and waits their turn long enough to shine. However, don't be surprised if you see more and more programs take a shot on a one or two-year rental at quarterback to avoid having to shovel millions of dollars in the direction of someone who more than likely leaves anyway.