History Suggests the Miami Marlins' World Series Odds Have Tanked After Slow Start
No team in MLB history has ever gone on to win the World Series after starting 0-5, which is the Miami Marlins' record following Monday's loss to the Los Angeles Angels.
The Miami Marlins have already notched their fifth loss of the 2024 regular season, and history suggests that their latest defeat was pretty meaningful.
Since the first year of MLB's existence in 1901, no team has ever gone on to win the World Series after starting the regular season 0-5. That's exactly where the Marlins sit just four days after Opening Day.
Miami was on the wrong end of a four-game sweep to open the year, failing to record a single win in an extended home series against the red-hot Pittsburgh Pirates. Then, in their series-opener against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday, the Marlins allowed two home runs to Mike Trout and went on to lose 7-4.
FanGraphs is projecting the Marlins to finish the season 77-85, giving the club a 0.3% chance to win the World Series. As technically generous as that may be, historically speaking, it's already a sharp dropoff from the 1.2% chance they were given ahead of Opening Day.
Of course, there is much more to accomplish in a season outside of the binary marker of the World Series. Still, an 0-5 start is hardly ever a good sign for a team's prospects that season.
Only two teams have overcome 0-5 starts to eventually win their divisions – the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins have never won the NL East, and it appears as if their 31-year streak of not claiming a division title will soon be extended 32.
It isn't as if Miami was a World Series favorite entering 2024, but there was at least some hope the team could reach the postseason after a surprising 84-78 campaign in 2023. While another Wild Card bid surely isn't out of reach just yet, it doesn't seem like the Marlins will be able to take the next step this season.
The Houston Astros were at risk of dropping to 0-5 on Monday as well, but Ronel Blanco delivered a no-hitter to lift the team to 1-4. The New York Mets and Chicago White Sox sit at 0-4 entering Tuesday's slate of games.
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