Breaking Down National League Playoff Picture After All-Star Break
There's still a lot to be decided in the National League now that the All-Star Game is in the rear-view mirror. There are two tight division races — the NL East and NL Central — and the race for the final wild-card spot is very tight.
There's a new playoff format in 2022, a big improvement from the one-and-done wild-card games of years gone by. This year, six teams make the playoffs in each league, the three division champions and three wild-card teams.
The two division champs with the best records get a bye in the first round, and then the lowest seeded division winner will play a best-of-three series against the lowest wild-card team, the No. 6 seed. The entire series will be played at the home ball park of the No. 3 seed.
It's the same with the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, the two best wild-card team. They'll play a best-of-three series as well, at the home park or the No. 4 seed. There is no travel in that round.
Here's where things are right now in the National League race at the All-Star break:
No. 1 — Los Angeles Dodgers (60-30)
- What they've done: The Dodgers were the NL favorites coming into the season, and they've finally kicked things into high gear lately, going 15-2 since June 29. In 12 of those wins, they've given up two runs or fewer. The Dodgers have a 2.97 ERA as a staff, the lowest in baseball. Opponents are hitting just .217
- Up next: July 21-24 home vs. San Francisco Giants; July 25-27 home vs. Washington Nationals; July 28-31 home at Colorado Rockies.
- The skinny: The Dodgers are perennial World Series threats every year, and 2022 is no different. They've really been dominant these past three weeks, and are playing well in all phases. As always, the Dodgers' ability to keep their starting rotation healthy will be the key to any postseason run.
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) is greeted after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the fifth inning at Angel Stadium. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
No. 2 — New York Mets (58-35)
- What they've done: The Mets have played well all season despite getting only 11 starts from Max Scherzer so far and none from Jacob deGrom. Others have stepped up in their absence and the bullpen has been very good, too. They've still got to deal with the Atlanta Braves down the stretch, though.
- Up next: July 22-24 home vs. San Diego Padres; July 26-27 home vs. New York Yankees; July 29-31 at Miami Marlins.
- The skinny: The Mets have the luxury of being able to close out games. Edwin Diaz has 20 saves already and has struck out 75 batters in just 37 1/3 innings, more than two a game. The Mets are 50-0 when leading after eight innings. That will serve them well down the stretch.
No. 3 — Milwaukee Brewers (50-43)
- What they've done: The Brewers are in first place, but just barely. They haven't scored enough runs and have dealt with a slew of injuries. Thankfully, their pitching has been exceptional, and more of the same is expected from 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and a bullpen that features studs Josh Hader and Devin Williams.
- Up next: July 22-25 home vs. Colorado Rockies; July 26-27 home vs. Minnesota Twins; July 29-31 at Boston Red Sox.
- The skinny: Milwaukee has some overpowering arms and they've remained in first place despite an eight-game losing streak as part of a 2-12 stretch. This is a team that's been to the playoffs four years ago, and they do have the luxury of playing in baseball's worst division. The five teams in the NL Central are a combined 47 games under .500. Even if they don't hold off the Cardinals for the division crown, they've still got the best chance for a wild-card. They have a late-August stretch where 15 of 18 games are against teams with losing records. They'll need to get hot then.
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) delivers a pitch in the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. (Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports)
No. 4 — Atlanta Braves (56-38)
- What they've done: The Braves are defending world champions, and they've been starting to play like it lately. The Braves won 14 games in a row from June 1-15 and they've gone 19-9 after that from June 17 to the break. Their race with the Mets should be the best division battle in baseball going forward.
- Up next: July 22-24 home vs. Los Angeles Angels; July 25-27 at Philadelphia Phillies; July 29-31 home vs. Arizona Diamondbacks.
- The skinny: It's hard to bet against the defending champs, right? They went 27-27 in their first 54 games, and 29-11 since then. There's no reason to think they won't stay hot, not with that lineup and all that pitching. They have nine games with the Mets in August, and then three more the final week of the season. Those are all must-watch games.
No. 5 — San Diego Padres (52-42)
- What they've done: We're used to the Padres having to play second fiddle to the Dodgers in the NL West, and early on it looked like they were prepared to hang with them. But they've hit the skids in the last month, going just 8-15 since June 23. Manny Machado has been great, hitting .303 with 15 home runs and 51 RBIs
- Up next: July 22-24 at New York Mets; July 25-27 at Detroit Tigers; July 29-31 home vs. Minnesota Twins.
- The skinny: There is so much talent on this Padres roster that I see this recent funk continuing for too long. Catching the Dodgers might already be out of the question, but expect them to remain in the wild-card mix right up to the end. They still have nine games with the Dodgers, which could be good or bad.
ational League third baseman Manny Machado (13) of the San Diego Padres gestures to fans in the fourth inning against the American League at Dodger Stadium. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
No. 6 — Philadelphia Phillies (49-43)
- What they've done: The Phillies have the worst record of any of the 12 playoff teams at the break, but they are in for the moment despite losing Bryce Harper to a thumb injury. Kyle Schwarber has been a blessing, with 29 homers at the break.
- Up next: July 22-24 home vs. Chicago Cubs; July 25-27 home vs. Atlanta Braves; July 28-31 at Pittsburgh Pirates.
- The skinny: The Phillies fit right in with the Cardinals and Giants in the wild-card race, because they've got plenty of nice pieces and a bunch of flaws, too. The Phillies can trust Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but they need a long stretch of good starts from all five guys to stay in this mix.
Still in the hunt
- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (50-44, percentage points out): The Cardinals have been up and down all year, and there are just far too many games where they don't hit enough. They've been shut out a whopping seven times since June 20, and they've wasted a lot of pitching performances. Paul Goldschmidt has been the one shining light offensively. He leads the team in just about every offensive category, hitting .330 with 20 home runs and 70 RBIs.
- SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (48-43, half-game out): The Giants continue to win with pitching and defense and the occasional timely hit, and they're in the wild-card race until the end as well. Logan Webb has been great — he's 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA — and Carlos Rodon (8-5, 2.66 with 147 strikeouts) has been a great addition as well. San Francisco has been wildly inconsistent. They've had two five-game winning streaks and a six-gamer, but they've also lost five in a row and six in a row. The extra swing in either direction is going to make or break their season.
San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (right) celebrates with catcher Austin Wynns (left) after the Giants defeated the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
Longshots ... and beyond
- Miami Marlins: 43-48
- Colorado Rockies: 43-50
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 40-52
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 39-54
- Chicago Cubs: 35-57
- Cincinnati Reds: 34-57
- Washington Nationals: 31-63
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