Despite missing four games in 2019, Davante Adams came just three yards shy of finishing with over 1,000 yards of the second consecutive season. Even though he only played in 12 games, Adams still led the Packers in targets with 127. However his touchdowns dropped significantly, after three straight years of double-digit scores, Adams managed to find the end-zone just five times in 2019.
Now healthy heading into 2020, the sportsbooks have Adams’ receiving yards prop is set at 1,200.5. The Over/Under odds are even, both of which are at -112.
Sports Illustrated’s gambling analysts Jaime Eisner and Shawn Childs join Corey Parson to discuss if bettors should wager on the Over or Under for Adams’ yardage prop.
Read the full transcript from the interview
Bill Enright: Davante Adams is one of the biggest staples when it comes to wide receivers in the fantasy football community. We know that he gets a ton of targets from Aaron Rodgers and even though he only played in twelve games in 2019, he did finish just 3 yards shy, cracking 1,000. Will he crack 1,200 in 2020. That's the conversation we're about to have with Jaime Eisner and Bill Huber, who covers the Packers. So, guys, let's talk about the over-under prop bet for Davante Adams. Jaime, what do you take us through what the oddsmakers have for the Packer star receiver?
Jaime Eisner: Yeah, right now they have even/-112 juice on both sides of this. I'm actually leaning towards the over here. Let's say there's a stay limited of receiving corps in Green Bay right now. You may have heard about it and it's made a couple of headlines since the draft. He has been their absolute stud the last couple of years, especially after Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb left in back to back years. In that period of time, he's averaging 11 targets, 7.2 Catches, and 88.3 yards per game. He only needs to be above 75 yards per game to hit this total. And if he keeps the race that he has the last couple of years in terms of workload and yards per game, he could even miss a couple of games and still hit the over. He's Aaron Rodgers' go-to guy. He's one of the best receivers in football. I love the over on this bet.
Bill Enright: Bill, when it comes to the Green Bay football team, no one knows it better than you as you are the editor in chief for Packer Central. So let's get your take on whether or not Davante Adams should go over or under this 1,200-yard mark.
Bill Huber: Yeah, I'm with Jamie. You have to take the over. Of course, the caveat here is him being healthy and he has been banged up for a few years. But you're right, they don't have anybody else really. Allen Lazard emerged last year, kind of, but you know Devin Funchess is their quote, unquote Big Brazen addition. He's missing obviously the whole offseason along with everybody else. They lost tight end Jimmy Graham, who was obviously underachiever, but they don't have it like a real X factor or a tight end either. So it's just they're just so much uncertainty. It's going to be Adams, Adams, Adams and probably some more Adams. So, yeah, definitely take the over.
Bill Enright: All right, I'm glad to see we're all in agreement on Davante Adams going with the over 1,200 receiving yards. We have plenty more gambling analysis for a lot of the NFL superstars. You could find more of it from Sports Illustrated by going to Si.com/gambling.