Bet the Over on Melvin Gordon’s Rushing Total

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The oddsmakers set the Broncos running back rushing total at 775.5 yards, Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Frank Taddeo weighs in on this player prop.

Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos this offseason which leaves fantasy football players and sports gamblers intrigued by the 27-year-old running back. When healthy, Gordon is one of the most productive rushers in the game, scoring 49 touchdowns the last four seasons. Unfortunately he’s played a full 16 game season just once in his five year career. Heading into 2020, the oddsmakers set his rushing total at 775.5 yards, a number he’s exceeded in three of his five seasons. Health will once again be a concern for Gordon but considering he’s averaged 63 yards per game in his career, he would have to maintain an average of about 50 yards across 16 games to hit the over on this player prop.Find out what Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Frank Taddeo says about betting on Gordon’s rushing total.

Read the transcript from his analysis:

Bill Enright: The oddsmakers released the over/under rushing total for Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon, they set the number at 775 yards. Let's find out if gamblers should take the over or under by bringing on Sports Illustrated's gambling analyst, Frank Taddeo. Frank, when I first saw this number, I thought I was going to be an easy over for me. 775, Gordon hit that mark in three of his five seasons in the NFL. But what? It's a sharp action telling you.

Frank Taddeo: Yeah, right now, Bill, there, actually the sharps are actually looking to back this number and they're looking to back it for one reason and one reason only. And that's because if we look at it even over a 16-game season, if he's able to actually play 16 games, which he's only been able to do once in his entire career due to injuries. He would only need to average 48.5 yards per game. So there's clear opportunity for him, I know that most bettors and most fantasy players are gonna know that Phillip Lindsey is there and is going to look to split time. But Bill, I'm inclined to believe and so are the sharps, that he's going to emerge as the back to own this backfield. And with that ability right now and he has such elusiveness, he's going to have tremendous value, especially in PPR leagues, where he's has the opportunity in 2020 to finish among the team leaders in receptions, especially in this offense, if they're going to look to maybe even spread him out wide. But he's going to be the back to own and he's easily going to get this is number. I'm in total agreement, Bill, right now that this number is too low. And I think it's only going to continue to rise. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't go above 800 and maybe even into the 820 range by the time that the season gets underway. They're only going to see continuous action on the over here. Like we said, if he's able to play a full season and he's been able to do go over this number three times already in his career, I actually see that this is a number with tremendous, tremendous value.