Will the SF Giants escape their slump in time to make a playoff run?
The 2023 SF Giants have always been a mystifying team, one built on an unlikely synergy of bulk contribution and complete lineup interchangeability. They've been streaky as can be, at one point ripping off 10 wins in a row, at other times getting swept by bottom-feeders like the Royals and Athletics. Despite it all, they sit at eight games above .500, still holding on to a Wild Card berth. But in the midst of one of their toughest stretches of the year, it's prudent to wonder just how far - and how fast - they could fall out of contention.
This doubt has far less to do with the division and Wild Card races, and more to do with how the Giants have kept themselves afloat while struggling. It is, without a doubt, incredibly impressive that San Francisco can still claim a record solidly above .500. Even as they've hit setback after setback in the last month and a half, they've managed to go 17-19 despite a -25 run differential that's not nearly as steep as it feels. In just the NL, the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Pirates have all gone from (at varying points) seemingly surefire division frontrunners to back-of-the-pack also-rans. The Giants haven't - not yet, anyways. But that's where they're headed.
Much of the concern stems from a hitting corps that's gone from anemic to exsanguinated. Since the end of their 10-game winning streak in late June, Giants hitters are collectively batting .209 with a .618 OPS, both good for worst in baseball. They've hit 37 home runs in that span, also last. The median in that span is 53, and maybe that right there is the entire difference. Tack on 20-something runs from 16 home runs, and you've got a winning ballclub in the last 40 days of play.
Problem is, you can't just pencil in numbers and run with them. San Francisco paid Joc Pederson $19 million dollars this year to go hit 25 home runs. He's at 11 and on pace for 14 by the end of the year, largely because he's batting .104 on pitches in the heart of the plate in the past two months. Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, J.D. Davis, and Brandon Crawford were counted on to be solid veteran players that could hold the team together, and none of them are hitting over .160 in the past month. And with rookies like Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely too inconsistent to hold down starting spots, the depth isn't able to paper over the lineup's holes.
The question is, how long are these struggles going to last? Yaz and Slater aren't career .130 hitters, and Michael Conforto's two home runs against the Rangers showed that he might be getting his groove back. But it's inexplicable how San Francisco's cutting-edge, advantage-focused strategies are yielding results this poor over this long of a stretch. It's genuinely possible that the offense continues underperforming for the rest of August, and by the time they resurface, they're completely buried in the division race, underwater in a weak Wild Card race, and none of the other teams gives them an opening to get back into contention.
In light of this concern, the Giants' overperformance in other areas becomes almost troubling. The Giants are running a two-man starting rotation with Logan Webb and All-Star Alex Cobb, and it's working, in part because they win almost three-quarters of their bullpen games. Is that sustainable in the playoffs? Is that even sustainable for the rest of the regular season? And even though Webb came one strike away from being the first Giants' pitcher to throw two 1-0 complete game shutouts in one year since Johnny Cueto (2016), he's still capable of struggling early in a game and getting hit around once or twice a month. Cobb's All-Star first half has given way to a 6.58 ERA in his last five starts. It's not that the Giants can't be effective to an almost otherworldly degree. They can score two runs a game, and expect to be able to win half the time. But they can't win half of those games all the time, and a ceiling of under .500 the rest of the way marks this season as a failure.
Of course, there's no reason that the Giants can't pick up the slack in short order. Players like Pederson and Davis aren't going to remain sub-replacement players for the rest of the year. Heliot Ramos has impressed in a big way since his return from the minors, Conforto's power seems to be coming back, and Wilmer Flores is on the hottest tear of his life right now. Mitch Haniger and Mike Yastrzemski will return to shore up outfield depth, while Anthony DeSclafani, Keaton Winn, and John Brebbia will fortify the pitching staff before the year is out. Combine that with the likely call-ups of Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison, and the Giants could really have something cooking.
It still feels...iffy. When you compare the list of unknowns to the things you feel sure about on this roster, the ratio comes out a lot bigger than you'd like. Patrick Bailey is a sensational rookie, and even if he fades, his early career has been an unmitigated success. The back of the bullpen, with Camilo Doval and the Rogers Twins (a tremendous name for a lounge band), is easily one of the best in baseball. Blake Sabol is a keeper, Thairo Estrada is a Dude™, and LaMonte Wade Jr. will keep getting on base at an elite level. And yes, everything will look a lot cleaner next year when Shohei Ohtani is on the roster.
Those are, to be sure, reassuring thoughts, and they're even almost all reasonable. But aside from that short list, what else can you guarantee from this roster going forward? That Flores will keep hitting like Freddie Freeman? That the Giants won't give back their reinforcements with additional injuries? That one starter or bulk pitcher melting down won't torpedo San Francisco's delicate rotation strategy? There are simply too many questions to bet on house odds and assume that things are going to work out.
And yet, baseball is a mystifying sport. The SF Giants don't look like contenders right now. But neither did the Nats in 2019, the Braves in 2021, or the Phillies last year. That's not a guarantee of success, but it is a reminder that the future isn't set. The Giants, for all the holes springing leaks in their boat, haven't quite sunk. That means something this late in the year. But if they're going to reach the finish line, they either need to abandon ship and learn to swim, or pray they have enough buckets to keep themselves afloat.
