Examining the SF Giants organization's pitching depth for potential trade chips
With the offseason underway, the SF Giants front office is surely looking at a myriad of ways to improve their roster. It was reported earlier this offseason that the team is open to trading young pitching to add a proven hitter that upgrades their lineup. While ace Logan Webb is not going anywhere, and will obviously be the foundation of San Francisco's rotation, there are plenty of other players who could intrigue other teams.
Top of the food chain: Camilo Doval, Kyle Harrison, Carson Whisenhunt
If the Giants ultimately want to push the chips to get a premiere bat to San Francisco via trade, they would have to give up at least one premium talent to do so. In terms of the Giants' organizational pitching depth, this is the cream of the crop.
Camilo Doval has already established himself as one of the best relievers in the game with 39 saves and a 2.93 ERA this season. His stuff is as good as anyone in MLB with his fastball and slider being one of the best pitches in terms of stuff and run prevention. However, given the fickle nature of relievers, there's always a higher risk associated than usual. Finding a closer to depend upon is rare. I don't imagine the Giants putting him on the block, but desperate times can sometimes call for desperate measures.
Now, towards the true prospects. It would be a huge gut punch to the fanbase if the Giants ever traded Kyle Harrison. Sure, the bat that would be acquired would need to be quite substantial, but the organization has built up his arrival as the next coming of Bumgarner or Lincecum. His stuff waned as the season came to a close but the control definitely looked better compared to his time at Sacramento when he was at the mercy of the ABS. Also, we have seen what he could become after his 11-strikeout effort in his Oracle Park debut.
Had he not suffered an elbow sprain that cut his season short, Carson Whisenhunt had a non-zero shot of making his MLB debut as well. It's wild to think about that since he started his season in San Jose. The reason that there was even a sniff of that possibility is that Whisenhunt's changeup is that good of a pitch. As a legitimate top-100 prospect, Whisenhunt alone might not fetch the star bat that the Giants need but package him with some other valuable prospects and he could be the centerpiece of a package for an All-Star bat.
Recently graduated rookies: Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Ryan Walker, Sean Hjelle
It's pretty funny to think about how Tristan Beck and Ryan Walker are older than staff ace Logan Webb. Both graduated from prospect-hood this season and are looking to establish themselves as core members of the Giants pitching staff next season.
Out of the four pitchers, Walker has been used in all sorts of ways as he's been used as an opener 13 times, pitched in multiple innings 20 times, 12 times with runners on base, and 10 times that he entered in the eighth inning or later. If we look at his Statcast numbers, there's potential for him to be one of the better relievers in all of baseball next season as his expected ERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are in the 90th percentile or better while his expected opponent's batting average, chase rate, and whiff rate are in the 85th percentile or better.
Tristan Beck has certainly looked more capable of being a starting pitcher than Walker. The question, however, is how far will the Giants push him. Beck certainly has the repertoire to start with an above-average fastball velocity and his glove-side pitches (sweeper, curveball, slider) are either above-average or better in terms of either horizontal or vertical movement, or both. The issue is that Beck's numbers look much worse when he goes through the lineup the second time around or more.
Now, Keaton Winn is still technically a rookie as he was eight innings short of graduating. But given his trajectory, there is certainly a shot that he will graduate before April 2024 ends. Out of the four, Winn has the best shot of sticking in the rotation. He has the envious combination of premium velocity and good control, and a platoon-neutral pitch (splitter) that movement-wise is one of the best in the game.
Rounding out the quartet is Sean Hjelle. It seemed like Hjelle's been pitching forever for the Giants when, in fact, it's only his second year at the big league level. Hjelle has an impressive sinker movement-wise. However, that's the only pitch that he has and it is tough to only have one good pitch but that pitch is best suited for giving up contact rather than generating whiffs. Frankly, Hjelle could find himself in 40-man limbo this offseason. Speaking of that...
The 40-man limbo: José Cruz, Randy Rodríguez, Thomas Szapucki, Cole Waites
These pitchers might lose their spots on the 40-man roster sooner rather than later. Cruz and Rodríguez were particularly interesting case studies as they were protected by the organization from the Rule 5 draft even though they were still a couple of steps away from the majors last offseason. Rather than reaching the big leagues in 2023, both of them seemed to stall in the upper minors.
Both pitchers still showed why they were protected as their stuff was still of good quality as Cruz and Rodríguez struck out 33% and 26% of the batters that they faced this season, respectively. However, strike-throwing was a clear issue for both as they posted walk rates approaching 20% as more. With more pitchers moving up to the system with just as good, if not better, stuff and far better control, both players could be on the bubble.
Szapucki and Waites are a different case. Both were considered ready for the Majors but were hurt for most, if not all, of this season. Both were placed in the 60-day IL (Szapucki with a thoracic outlet surgery, Waites with an elbow and back strain) and are still technically rookies but their spot on the 40-man for next season is definitely in question. It seems likely that the Giants could try to designate them for assignment, re-signing them on sizable minor league contracts instead.
In terms of trade value, all four have little to no value at this point, particularly Szapucki and Waites due to their injuries. Cruz and Rodríguez might have some value but their 40-man spots might make it tough for other teams to justify giving up something of significant value to acquire them.
Pitchers who are clear top 20 prospects in the organization: Reggie Crawford, Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp, Carson Seymour
If you peruse any Giants top prospect rankings, these five pitchers are both clear top 30 prospects while having the luxury of not being eligible for Rule 5 protection. All five are intriguing prospects to have in the organization with the combination of both stuff and control.
In terms of pure velocity, Reggie Crawford holds the candle as he can approach triple-digits when he is on. Being left-handed is also a plus. Black, Birdsong, and Seymour are not far behind in terms of velocity with the trio capable of touching the high-90s while Roupp will sit in the low-90s though is mainly using a sinker.
In terms of secondaries, Roupp clearly has the advantage with his high-70s plus-plus curveball alongside a slider and a changeup. Seymour and Birdsong have the most diverse arsenal with three clear secondaries (slider, curveball, changeup). Both Crawford and Black have potential plus sliders with developing changeups on their sleeve.
When we are talking about control, all five have potential average or better control. Seymour has the trademark sinker-slider approach with the ability to overpower hitters. Roupp is a sinker-curveball guy but when healthy has shown the best control out of the five. Crawford surprisingly has shown solid fastball feel which is surprising for a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. His slider can be on and off at times, though. Black and Birdsong are consistent strike throwers, but do rely on inducing hitters to chase.
All five pitchers have the ability to supplement any deal that the Giants will do in the winter. Packing two or three of the pitchers in this group should net the Giants an everyday big leaguer. Ultimately though, it depends on how other teams view these pitchers if they see them as potential big-league pieces either in the rotation or in the bullpen.
Rule 5-eligible pitchers: Kai-Wei Teng, Erik Miller, Nick Swiney, Nick Avila, Ben Madison, Juan Sanchez, R.J. Dabovich, Ryan Murphy, Trevor McDonald
These group of pitchers are interesting. These pitchers are relatively close to the majors, with MLB-caliber stuff, and could be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster. While many will argue that the marquee players that need to be included in the 40-man roster (e.g. Tyler Fitzgerald, Patrick Bailey, Kyle Harrison etc.) are done and dusted, these group of pitchers can potentially make an impact in the majors next season.
Starting on the Sacramento roster, both Kai-Wei Teng and Erik Miller clearly have the stuff to pitch in the big leagues had they been given the opportunity. And based on the pitchers who pitched at both Sacramento and San Francisco this season, both can potentially see their strike-throwing improve to MLB-quality if they get out of the harsh PCL environment. Leaving them exposed to the Rule 5 draft would seem to be a bad decision with current openings to the 2024 Giants bullpen.
Having been selected in the Rule 5 Draft and returned back once before, Nick Avila seems less likely to be selected this year. He's been a valuable piece of the Sacramento pitching staff this season though, and teams might be intrigued once again. Both Nick Swiney and Juan Sanchez do not have a premium fastball but what they do have are good secondary offerings. Both are also left-handed which is certainly valuable though teams would likely pass on both come the Winter Meetings. R.J. Dabovich shall be included in this boat as he was hurt for most of the year unless teams have as much intel with his recovery as the Giants do.
There are three pitchers in this boat that are interesting cases. Ryan Murphy might seem to be better off pitching in Triple-A rather than straight in the big leagues next season. But, he has the best shot of providing bulk innings out of the group and teams looking for a multi-inning relief arm with enough stuff and control to get outs. However, teams more often select one-inning relievers than true starters so pitchers like Miller tend to be more at risk of selection.
The funny thing with pitchers is that they are fickle creatures. They can look absolutely promising this year but blow up in our faces the next year. That is what makes them both frustrating and fun. MLB teams like the SF Giants also know this so they continue to stockpile arms even though it can seem to look like they have enough already. However, it also could be a reason for the franchise to sell high on some prospects to upgrade the big-league roster.
