SF Giants free-agent breakdown: New York Mets RHP Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom is a tool.
A scalpel, to be precise. It’s a well-earned analogy in a league that treats most starting pitchers like hammers. Every so often, though, you’ll find an ace that acts as the tip of a rotation’s spear. The SF Giants have a great starter in Logan Webb. But there’s only one deGrom. If you need a starter in today’s game to get a single out against any of history’s greatest hitters, you’d pick deGrom. There’s no one alive who can carve through hitters like he can.
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
But the unmatched edge of a scalpel comes with a cost. Surgeons don’t have favorite scalpels in the way that golfers have favorite clubs, or writers have favorite pens. To hone yourself past a razor’s edge, you sacrifice durability. That’s the bargain you make wielding such power.
Here are the most barebones details about deGrom’s career. He entered the league in 2014, winning Rookie of the Year. He missed significant time in 2016, 2021, and 2022 with injury. In 2018, he transitioned from good to elite, dropping his ERA from 3.53 to 1.70 in 217 innings pitched. deGrom has made five playoff appearances - four in 2015, one in 2022 - and has been good but not otherworldly. He would have appeared in 2016, but the Mets let some guy named Conor Gillaspie waste a 7-inning shutout start from Noah Syndergaard in the Wild Card game. Too bad.
If you want to take some time to appreciate a truly impressive baseball career, scroll through deGrom’s Baseball Reference page. It’s fun. But there’s a way to more easily enjoy the impressive statistical trail he’s left.
I’m going to take an assortment of stats that you’d want to see a free-agent pitcher excel in, then pick the number randomly from one of the nine years in his career (2014-2022). If it’s from 2020, I’ll extrapolate it out to 162 games if needed. Alright, let’s build the archetypal Jacob deGrom using the power of math.
Jacob deGrom Career Samples
ERA: 2.54
IP: 140.1
HR/9: 0.84
K: 146
BB: 43
FIP: 3.32
WHIP: 0.912
Batting Average Against: .175
Awards: All-Star, 7th place in Cy Young voting
As a rough profile, it’s a good primer on who deGrom is as a pitcher. He’s hard to hit, he piles up the strikeouts while avoiding walks, he suppresses home runs, and he’s usually in the running for several awards when he’s right. By that profile, deGrom would be a roughly 5-win player that would easily fill Carlos Rodón’s spot on the Giants.
And there are areas where he’s likely to outperform those stats next year. Of the past five years, he’s posted an ERA under 2.00 twice, and under 2.50 four times. deGrom’s walked 37 batters in the last three years total, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio last year was a mind-boggling 12.75. That would seem to be unsustainable, except he did even better in 2021, posting 13.27 strikeouts for every walk, which is utterly ridiculous. But the analytics back it up. He’s in the top 2% of pitchers in terms of expected ERA, batting average, strikeout, walk, swing-and-miss, chase, fastball velocity, and fastball spin rates. His stuff is as good as it gets.
The problem areas do exist, though. It’s a risky bet to rely on deGrom completing even 140 innings next year, considering his prior three years saw him throw 68, 92, and 64.1 innings respectively, and only one of those saw the pandemic cut the season by 100 games.
deGrom isn’t your average ‘high injury risk’ free agent signing. He’s the ‘high injury risk’ free agent signing because his particular combination of age and skill ceiling are going to earn a short-term contract at one of the highest $-per-year figures in MLB history. First, note that deGrom had a player option with the Mets for 2023 at $32.5 million, which means that’s not even the baseline for his new contract. Keith Law estimates deGrom’s market as three years for $120 million, while Jim Bowden predicts a two-year, $90 million pact. Tim Britton thinks someone will offer an extra year - four for $148 million. Either way, it’s around a $40 million commitment next year, and $40 million for potentially less than 100 innings is a great way to keep a roster stripped bare.
The Giants, at least, have a unique opportunity to take advantage of deGrom’s availability. They’ve made a name for themselves building up pitchers after injury, letting them show off their stuff on short-term deals, and propelling them to huge paydays elsewhere. They did it with Gausman in 2021. They did it with Rodón in 2022. If this is truly what the Giants believe to be the best way to get high-end talent on the field, deGrom could be their greatest showcase yet.
And I think I know exactly what it would take. Like with Rodón, the Giants would likely suggest a two-year deal with a player option for the second year. It’d have to be high AAV, and there’s currently one other pitcher on the market with a similar deal - Max Scherzer, at 43.3M AAV. Up that number to $44 million, and deGrom gets the AAV record. $44 million per year for two years, with deGrom taking none of the risk. If that’s what the Giants offer, deGrom could be coming to San Francisco.
The parameters for such a deal, oddly enough, put the ball squarely in San Francisco’s court. The question isn’t can they, but will they? And that’s a much harder question to answer. How far are they willing to go to chase greatness? Who will deGrom mean they don’t go after? Because don’t be fooled, one deGrom is a Carlos Correa and an Alex Cobb, and that’s a very valuable set of players to pass up on. But if ownership can stomach a massive investment in the short term, this could be the offseason that they finally become perennial contenders again. There is no one else who offers what deGrom can. But you have to pay up to go get him.
deGrom is the final question in Who Wants to be a Millionaire. One question to decide it all. Don't worry, you get a free 50/50 to help you along. So walk right up. Let the haunting melody of their theme music lure you in. All it costs to play is $440,000. Oh, but you’ll be able to afford that easily if you win.
If.
Well SF Giants? Do you want to be a millionaire?
