SF Giants free-agent breakdown: Los Angeles Dodgers SS Trea Turner
There’s a new inefficiency on the market.
Batting average? So 2008. Slugging went passé in 2011. Breeze right on past WAR. Forget xWOBA, DRS, Sprint Speed, home runs, putouts, and all that stuff. Skip right on past all that because Trea Turner has found the secret to getting paid on the open market:
Jon Hamm.
Of course, being a transcendental talent helps, too. The SF Giants saw it when the Dodgers sold the farm to acquire Turner in July of 2021, the second year in a row Turner would finish with a top-10 MVP finish, in part due to a career-high 28 home runs. The Giants saw what Turner could do in 2022, when he merely had an All-Star season while leading the league with 708 plate appearances. He sure had an impact on the 4-15 record the Giants put up against LA last year.
Dodgers infielder Trea Turner fields a groundball. (2022)
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
But let’s go deeper. In the pandemic-shortened 2020, Turner led the league in hits, with 78. In 2019, he was injured a little bit, so he only gave the Nationals 569 plate appearances with an .850 OPS, which would have made him the Giants’ best hitter this year. In 2018, he played every single game and stole 43 bases. Before that, he posted a .284 batting average in his age-24 season. That was after his second-place Rookie of the Year finish, when he recorded a .937 OPS.
Of all the players that will get talked about this offseason, Trea Turner is special. He’s blazing fast - he’s never finished below the 99th percentile in the league in Sprint Speed, which helps make him a premium defender at a premium position. He’s a lifetime .302 hitter that hasn’t finished with less than a .298 batting average in the past four years. He unlocked his power in 2020, averaging a 27-home run pace per 162 games in the past three years. There are no holes in his game for opposing teams to key in on.
If it sounds like I’m hyping up Turner here, it’s because I am. He’s been the second most valuable player in baseball behind Aaron Judge in the past three years. If the Dodgers re-sign Turner, he’s going to torment the Giants for the next 6+ years. If the Giants sign Turner, he’s going to torment the Dodgers for the next 6+ years. It’s as simple as that.
If you want to pick nits, fine, let’s pick nits. He’s never been one to walk much, which might be a little troubling if his expected batting average doesn’t remain in the 80th or 90th percentile as it has the past five years. He will eventually slow down, and when it does, how much value he gives up as a defender will be an important question. Perhaps Brandon Crawford could give him a few tips and tricks on how to remain elite with less-than-average speed.
Dodgers infielder Trea Turner checks on SF Giants first baseman Brandon Belt. (2022)
Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Turner also chased a lot outside the zone, ranking in the bottom quartile for the MLB last year. That might be a little worrisome, but it could also be Turner’s attempt to replicate the power-packed 2021 stroke that made him so valuable that season. Either way, he still hit .298 last year. Turner also had a rougher defensive season last year by Outs Above Average. He might point out that it was a first-half adjustment to playing shortstop full-time for LA that improved in the second half. Still, Turner’s biggest concerns as a player are both granular and correctable, which is part of why he’s one of the most valuable players in baseball.
If Turner represents one of the best values in free agency this year, then the question becomes what it will take to sign him. First, Brandon Crawford’s final extension year won’t be an obstacle because Turner already showed his ability to pick up second base when LA needed to make room for him in 2021. If his main competition is Thairo Estrada, then Estrada gets to back up Turner when Crawford’s healthy. That’s the beauty of Trea Turner - he makes the math simple.
The bigger question is what a Trea Turner contract looks like. Turner will understandably aim for a Francisco Lindor or Corey Seager-type contract of ten years and $320 million or more. The difference, of course, is that Lindor and Seager both started those contracts entering their age-28 seasons. Trea Turner will be 30 next season, which makes an 8-year pact more likely. At $35 million AAV, more than either Seager or Lindor, would such a contract make sense for the Giants?
Yes. Absolutely yes. In fact, that contract at $40 million per year would be far from unacceptable. The most realistic scenario is that by the time Turner enters his age 38 season, he’ll have had one or two injury-marred seasons that require him to be managed or DH’d to remain in the 1.0-3.0 WAR category. If that’s the price for three to five years of Turner absolutely scorching the league, this is as no-brainer as it gets.
Between Rich Aurilia and Brandon Crawford, the SF Giants have been blessed to have fan-favorite shortstops for the better part of three decades now. If they have a chance to bring in one of the league’s best players in Trea Turner, they can keep that run going for the better part of a decade. It’s not often you get a chance to make a deal with such confidence, but now more than ever, it’s time to let the hot stove sizzle.
