Buster Olney ranks SF Giants third-tier contenders for Shohei Ohtani
The SF Giants have missed out on some free agents over the years. Last year it was Aaron Judge, and Carlos Correa after his physical exam. Previously they've come in second to sign Bryce Harper, had a Giancarlo Stanton deal scuttled by his no-trade clause, and fallen short on Jon Lester. Oh, and after the 2017 season, they missed out on a Japanese two-way player named Shohei Ohtani.
Now, Ohtani is heading into free agency next winter, and the Giants are once again star-hunting in free agency. And ESPN rates the Giants' chances as...third-tier.
According to Buster Olney, the Giants aren't the front-runners for Ohtani's services. That would be the Los Angeles Dodgers. The other favorites are the usual free-spending suspects: New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, and the New York Mets.
Of course, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim do have the incumbent advantage, especially if Ohtani only feels comfortable pitching in front of a bunch of big fake rocks in center field.
The Giants are placed in the third tier of free-agent suitors, along with the Mariners and Cubs, both of whom have acquired star Japanese players in the past - Ichiro Suzuki, Seiya Suzuki, Kosuke Fukudome, Kazahiro Sasaki, and others.
Olney writes:
"After trying and failing to land Judge and Carlos Correa, the Giants are still looking for a face of their franchise, and signing Ohtani would accomplish that. But San Francisco would probably have to do what it did not do with Judge -- go far beyond competing offers, despite extraordinary payroll flexibility."
They've done this in the past. The Giants offered Lester more money than the Cubs in 2014, but he preferred the city of Chicago. They gave Aaron Judge an offer for $360 million, which the Yankees matched. There's a perception that San Francisco is a less attractive destination than some of the other cities, either due to colder weather, higher taxes, less access to roller coasters and killer whale parks. Or they can't believe Arinell Pizza closed.
San Francisco had the first Japanese player in MLB history when they acquired Masahiro Murakami on a one-year loan in 1964. They wanted to keep him, but the Nankai Hawks wanted him back for 1965. Since then, they've had one season cameos from outfielders Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Nori Aoki, but they have yet to have an All-Star caliber player from Japan.
This year, the Giants actually landed a top free agent in Carlos Correa, but got cold feet once his physical exam revealed more injury damage than they expected. The Mets also nearly signed Correa before he returned to the Minnesota Twins.
After years of settling for second-tier free agents - Jeff Samardzija instead of Lester, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger instead of Judge, Steven Vogt instead of Bryce Harper - the Giants will have to spend heavily on Ohtani, though they would seemingly have the money for him. There's no one on the roster on a long-term deal except Logan Webb, and let's just say there's no one blocking Ohtani at DH, or in the rotation.
An unnamed talent evaluator suggested that the amount of interest might let Ohtani's agent demand a very expensive starting point. "He's in a position to tell teams that if they're not prepared to make a huge offer -- say, $500 million -- then there won't be a visit," said the insider. Basically, the Giants are going to have to sell a lot of clam chowder bowls, and figure out what kind of animal hat they can slap Ohtani's name on.
Still, it's a long shot, which is why it's good that the Giants had their own left-handed two-way player make his pitching debut on Saturday at single-A San Jose. 2022 first-round pick Reggie Crawford has recovered from Tommy John surgery, and he both pitched and started at DH in the last week.
In the best-case scenario, Crawford could reach the big leagues some time in the 2025 season. The SF Giants are hoping Shohei Ohtani will be there to show him the two-way ropes.
