There’s Always Next Year: Cleveland Indians Edition

In a phrase that has become all too synonymous with Cleveland, it once again is being muttered around town.

The Cleveland Indians had high expectations this year, evidenced by Sports Illustrated picking them to win the World Series for the first time since 1948.

They returned a young roster that is mostly locked up for years to come, regained a healthy Jason Kipnis, and brought in Brandon Moss to be the power bat they were looking for the past few years. Instead, it was another rough start to the year for the Tribe.

The big free agent signings the year prior, Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, continually battled injuries and found themselves battling for playing time.

The poor defensive play early in the year was also costly with many of them seemingly playing out of position. An early season injury to Yan Gomes was also a catastrophic start and everything began to look like another typical Cleveland season that could only be matched by the woeful attendance.

The last major disappointment in the year came when the Indians became sellers at the deadline, including a trade of an underwhelming Moss to the Cardinals for a young prospect. While Moss disappointed in terms of batting average, he did hit for some of the power the Indians wanted, smashing 15 home runs before his trade.

In comparison, Moss will finish second on the team in home runs, despite being traded back in July and only four behind Carlos Santana for the team lead. It has been a constant struggle for the Indians to provide some power in their lineup, finishing twenty-second in the league in home runs.

However with the bad comes some good, the Indians played their best baseball at the end of the year and while they didn't make the playoffs they can still take momentum into next year.

Once again they will return almost the entire team and most of these guys have yet to hit their full potential. They are going to need the experience to compete in a division next year that saw the Kansas City Royals absolutely kill it and a Minnesota Twins team perform really well and with a ton of talent still in their farm system to come up over the next few years.

The biggest game changer this year for the Indians though, was the emergence of SS Francisco Lindor. He was touted as a top ten prospect in baseball and he lived up to that hype competing with former first overall pick Carlos Correa of the Houston Astros for American League Rookie of the Year.

He brings back the defensive stability that many Indians fans took for granted watching Omar Vizquel for years on end and now the Indians may have another annual Golden Glove winner.

He has also shown great discipline at the plate and hitting for plus power compared to where he was projected to be. It makes you wonder how many more games they could have won if they didn’t wait to call him up after Ramirez struggled early in the year. The Indians now can have three .300 hitters to start the lineup next year with Kipnis, Lindor, and Michael Brantley.

The Indians also saw great improvements in the defense by the addition of Giovanny Urshela at third and Lonnie Chisenhall in RF might be the biggest surprise of all. He looked lost on defense at third for years and they moved him to RF and the guy has been lights out on defense.

His versatility out there could force the Indians to bring him back next year to get one better look at him with the lack of depth in the outfield.

This season saw us trade away almost the entire outfield; Moss, Swisher, Bourn, and David Murphy with Ryan Raburn and Brantley being the only two still left from opening day.

The last highlight of the year has to come from the pitching staff especially the starters. The Tribe ranked sixth in quality starts, and second in both strikeouts and batting average, trailing only the Chicago Cubs at seasons end.

They were 45-2 when the team scores four runs showing that they have been able to suppress other teams and goes as far as the offense does. This season also saw the first time in AL history with one team having four guys with 170+ strikeouts in a year.

The team has really seen strides since Mickey Callaway has taken over the role of pitching coach, and his tenure has been vital to the success of these young pitchers.

At the end of the day, the season is still over without a playoff berth, so let’s take a look at the diamond and see what the Indians can do next year to take it to the next step.

Infield:

Catcher: I fully believe like we saw with Kipnis last year that Yan Gomes did not fully recover from his injury early in the year. He has had a poor year both at the plate and defensively seeing his batting average decrease by about 0.050 this year and only throwing out about 33% of runners putting him last in baseball.

The offseason could do him good to get healthy again and look more like his 2014 self, but the Indians also have to figure out what to do with their other catcher. In 70 games this year, Roberto Perez is only hitting 0.228 with 21 RBIs. This is one area I think the Indians can look to improve by at least bringing in another catcher to push Perez for the backup role in spring training. Good thing for Cleveland, there’s a plethora of veteran catchers poised to hit the market.

1st Base: This is going to be an interesting dilemma for the Tribe. Santana will be penciled in to be the starter her for 2016 but he has continually underwhelmed and we have seen his BB:SO ratio decrease.

Next year is the last year on his contract before the Indians are faced with a $12 million option that I can’t see them picking up. He could be a trade topic over the winter especially if the Indians can get anything for him. Chris Davis of the Orioles would be the ultimate addition because of his power, but because of his campaign this year the sweepstakes for him may prove too costly.

Mike Napoli might be another guy that fits more in Cleveland’s budget to look at. His average hasn’t been great this year, but he can hit the 20 home runs a year the Tribe needs and would benefit from playing his natural position at first instead of the outfield where Texas currently has him playing. There is also the in-house option with Jesus Aguilar, a former MLB futures game player that has failed to make enough of an impression to stick each call up.

My guess though is the Indians will start the year with Santana at first and see what the team looks like mid-season before making adjustments.

2nd Base:Jason Kipnis responded with a bounce back year and his second All-Star appearance. He’s locked up through 2020 and won’t be going anywhere. He should be the leadoff guy again next year and needs to set the tone for the rest of the team. Ramirez has had his ups and downs this year but can serve as a utility infielder for the Tribe next year with Mike Aviles unlikely to be back.

Shortstop: Man did Lindor have a heck of a year. A possible rookie of the year to pair with a two time all-star in Kipnis really sets up well for the middle of the Indians infield and the top of the batting order. He has been my favorite player to watch at the plate along with Brantley and the best player on defense since Vizquel. He’s earned his every day role and he should continue to improve as well.

3rd Base: Here is going to be the hardest decision for the Indians to make this offseason regarding the infield. The Indians are now stuck with Chris Johnson’s horrible contract in order to get rid of Swisher and Bourn. He has seen limited playing time after a fluke spider bite injury that put him on the DL for a stint since getting him. The Indians also have Giovanny Urshela at third. He came up around the same time as Lindor but he hasn’t quite panned out like him and saw Jose Ramirez play over him down the stretch. He brings a plus defense but his bat has been a concern.

The Indians are stuck in a quandary here at third. I think the best thing for them to do is to go out and sign an everyday third baseman and let Johnson DH and play an occasional third.

The only problem is the third base market is extremely weak and the Indians may have to make a trade to find the bat and guy they want at third. Urshela has spent a fair amount of the time in the minors, but they also signed him as a 16 year old out of Colombia. At only 23, he still has plenty of time and can benefit from more reps at AAA to start the year and work his way back into the majors.

Outfield: This season we saw the Indians trade away the whole outfield with Swisher, Bourn, Moss, and Murphy get traded and Raburn likely being let go after the season. One thing for certain is Brantley will still be in left field. After watching this team down the stretch, Chisenhall and Almonte have both proved that they deserve a chance to be on this team for next year.

What complicates things is the amount of high draft picks the Indians have invested in over the last few years. The Indians have five outfielders in their minor league system that have been picked in the first two round since 2012, including the top two players in their farm system, Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier. They most likely will be expected to come up in 2017.

The Tribe does have two guys that can make the 2015 team however, Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey. Neither one has an area where their game truly dominates but both are solid overall players that can fill a corner outfield spot and Naquin possibly in center.

One of them should push for a backup spot on the opening day roster. This could continue to leave the Indians with a surplus of left handed bats, but looking at their pitchers they aren’t afraid to put their best players out there regardless of matchups. The main need for the outfield will be finding a center fielder to replace the role that Bourn filled.

Let’s look at some of the free agents out there.

Jason Heyward is the crown jewel of the market. He’s having a good year for the Cardinals and only at age 26, will be in high demand and get a major contract.

The name that I would look into is Denard Span of the Nationals. Span is a true center fielder and is coming off an injury plagued year. The Indians have loved taking chances on one year prove it deals such as Scott Kazmir and Gavin Floyd, and Span fits the candidacy.

At 32 years old he may not get that big contract he’d be looking for, but with a one year deal can make a case for one last decent contract with a comeback year.

He’d fit in towards the bottom of the order with other guys like Brantley and Lindor to take the pressure off him at the top of the lineup. Alex Rios has not hit for the power like he has in years past, but he is a plus average hitter and a right handed bat that the Indians can consider to upgrade Raburn in RF as well.

Starting Pitchers: They have been the highlight of the team all season and why fix what’s not broken. While Corey Kluber didn't repeat his Cy Young season, he still had a year that you would expect from an ace.

His ERA was a little higher this year and his win loss record at 9-16 is extremely deceiving, but most of his other stats stayed consistent from last year.

He could not benefit any run support this year especially in the beginning of the year. Carlos Carrasco stepped up into the number two role and has also put a great season together for himself. He amassed over 200 strikeouts this year and kept his WHIP around 1 with more innings compared to his small sample size that the Indians took their chance on from last year when they resigned him.

Trevor Bauer has had his ups and downs throughout the year but he has shown flashes of being a great pitcher. Danny Salazar has also had his ups and downs but was much better this year compared to last. Both of those guys also have the ability to strikeout batters with both getting at least 170.

However pitch control remains a problem for both, as they have a high amount of walks and pitch counts that limit how deep they go every five days. The fifth spot is still open for the grabbing with Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson looking like the top two options.

Tomlin has come on strong in the second half as he is coming back from Tommy John and his WHIP was actually the best in baseball after his return. Anderson has also pitched well all year besides the couple of starts he was dealing with a shoulder injury that saw him land on the DL. The Indians could also look to resign Floyd who came out of the bullpen in September as he returns from Tommy John and he as well looked decent.

The Tribe should be sitting in good shape here next year and the only way I would mix things up here is if one of these young pitchers besides Kluber gets moved to bring in a big bat on offense. Carrasco would be the one with the most demand because of his talent and favorable contract.

Salazar would be my guess for second because he has the most potential of the remaining guys. If nobody gets moved, Kluber, Carrasco, Salazr, Bauer, and Tomlin would be my starting five with Anderson being ready to get the first call up if an injury were to occur.

Relief Pitchers: This is the area of the team that I would expect the front office to address.

Francona uses his bullpen more than any other manager in the major league when he has to. He’s all about the matchups and won’t be afraid to use three guys in one inning late in the game if he feels that will get them the victory.

The problem with the team right now is that his matchups aren’t quite there. The Indians are depleted of left handed arms in the majors and the minors. Marc Rzepczynski was the matchup guy for Terry Francona this year but he was dealt to San Diego at the deadline.

The Indians have also been through Nick Hagadone who went down for the year with an elbow injury and Kyle Crockett who could not maintain his success from a year ago and found himself mostly pitching in AAA. The Indians will clearly need to address that this offseason.

Antonio Bastardo of Pittsburgh could be an option for that role. The other thing that I feel Cleveland lacks is a lock down arm at the end of a game. Currently the Indians have Cody Allen as their closer and Bryan Shaw as the setup man. In years past, Francona has had a seventh, eighth, and ninth inning man but didn’t seem to trust anybody enough to fill that role this year and used Shaw and Allen for more than an inning at times.

Shaw has also looked better when he comes into situational settings instead of starting a full inning. Allen may strike a lot of people out with 99 in 69.1 innings, but a 2.99 ERA for a closer isn’t ideal.

When I think of dominant bullpens my mind goes right to Kansas City and they have a bunch of guys that can come in and light up the gun and shut batters down.

The Indians don’t really have that hurler and they are not the easiest to find. The main way to find one is to draft and develop them which will take years. Cleveland does need an arm, hurler or not, in that back end to pair with Allen for next year. Jeff Manship does not have overpowering stuff but has had about as good of a year as you can have for a reliever and may find himself in a more crucial role next year.

Ryan Webb and Zach McAllister have been your next best relievers and Webb is a free agent. The rest of the bullpen has been plagued by inconsistency from guys like Austin Adams and CC Lee in addition to the ones mentioned before.

Darren O’Day from Baltimore is a guy I’d love to add. He has a tricky side arm delivery and has been great for Baltimore the last two years with an ERA under 1.75 both years.

He’s also had his ERA decline each of his four years in Baltimore. Brian Matusz is another reliever out of Baltimore that can fit a role as well at only 28 and a left handed arm. There are some other options out there as well but due to age, cost, and need may not be the best options for the Indians. Some of those names could include Edward Mujica, Tyler Clippard, and Oliver Perez.

In review, this was a Cleveland Indians team that had high expectations but just failed to meet them.

They have a strong core with guys such as Brantley, Kipnis, and Lindor. They also have among the top rotations in baseball led by former Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber. They also have had a decent bullpen for the most part and a defense that improved during the year. The tools are all there that if the team can limit mistakes and add a few more runs should be a contender.

The biggest thing holding them back is the lack of a power bat. They need to use the offseason to find a bat and some complimentary veterans to replace some of the guys they are losing to free agency.

If they can also shore up some of the bullpen too then they should be right there with Kansas City as favorites to win the Central next year and finally make a return back to the postseason.