Don't Let Stats in Goodyear Fool You Into Who Will Start The Indians Season On the Roster in Detroit

We have always said it is difficult to evaluate players in spring training because no one knows what the purpose of Arizona (in the Indians’ case) baseball is for each individual player.

For example, after Shane Bieber’s first outing in the desert, he talked about how he didn’t use his curveball in his two innings on the mound because he wanted to work on his slider. Moreover, veterans go to camp with a different point of view than young players trying to impress Terry Francona and the coaching staff.

One way to avoid this is looking at who the pitcher or hitter is facing. Are they big league caliber players. For example, Francona likes to use his closer early in exhibition games so they can face major league hitters, who usually get two or three at bats, and then take the rest of the day off.

The skipper also likes to hit his catchers high in the batting order at times so they can get two at bats and yet only catch three or four innings.

Baseballreference.com has a ranking of who both hitters and pitchers are facing in exhibition play, which can help in fans evaluation how young players are doing in the pre-season.

Through games played on March 5th, the hitter who faced the most experienced pitching was Bradley Zimmer, who went 2 for 6 with three strikeouts against those pitchers. Second was Daniel Johnson, who was also 2 for 6 with a double and an RBI.

The rating system is as follows: If you played in the big leagues the previous year, you are rated a 10. Playing in AAA gets you an 8, AA a 7, down to a 5 for High A, 4 for a full season low A team, and scales down to a 1 if a position player is pitching.

The pitchers seen by Zimmer rate an 8.2, while Johnson has seen 7.9 hurlers. The hitters who faced the next toughest pitchers are Amed Rosario, (7) going 2 for 5, and Roberto Perez (6.8) 1 for 5 and a walk.

Two hitters who have done well so far, Bobby Bradley and Yu Chang, have faced 6.5 ranking pitchers. Meanwhile, young Gabriel Arias, off to a 6 for 6 start, has seen 4.2 ranked hurlers.

Pitchers have the same rating for the batters they faced, except for the “1” ranked hitter are pitchers.

Non roster invitee Kirk McCarty has faced the toughest hitters, because he has come in to finish innings when the big league reached his pitch limit. Besides McCarty, the best tested Tribe pitchers have been Cal Quantrill (8.7), Logan Allen (8.6), and Triston McKenzie (8.5).

Both Quantrill and McKenzie have had some problems with control thus far, maybe because they are facing good hitters who aren’t chasing. The makes Allen’s two scoreless inning effort look more impressive.

On the other hand, with pitchers we don’t know if they are pitching the way they normally would during a regular season game. They may be out there seeing what does work and what doesn’t.

So, when your favorites player is struggling or doing well in training camp, look at who they are facing before getting too excited or disappointed.

Obviously, another thing that matters is what position the player is at. If you are a third baseman, you aren’t going to do anything to make the front office move from Jose Ramirez, who has finished in the top three of the MVP voting three times in the last four years.

However, if they are in the mix at 1B and/or the OF, pay attention to this number, and also, pay attention to who is getting at bats early in games. That’s Francona and the coaching staff seeing who can hit experienced pitching. Those are the guys with the best chance to be in Detroit on April 1st.