Non-Tender Wave Makes Tyler Naquin’s 2020 Crucial
Tyler Naquin might be on a shorter leash than it seems.
Entering his first arbitration season, the soon-to-be 29-year-old outfielder is estimated to receive $1.8 million according to both MLBTradeRumors and Spotrac.
That figure is not alarming for a 1-to-2 win outfielder heading into his fourth year of service, which is why he was tendered a contract for 2020.
Where he goes from here may not be so straightforward. Before the December 2 deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players for next year, baseball saw 40 players jettisoned to free agency, just 6 fewer than the previous two off-seasons combined.
That list included considerably talented players like Philadelphia’s Cesár Hernández and gold glover Yolmer Sánchez.
As teams are more willing to cut costs and play lesser-proven players instead of paying dramatic raises for incremental gains from arbitration-eligible veterans, the benchmark for what the latter are worth rises too.
Take Hernández, worth 1.7 WAR in 2019, projected around 2.0 in 2020, and set to make $11.8 million through arbitration. 22 players were worth 2.1 WAR, Hernández’s high-end projection for 2020, and his 1.7 from last season. Those names include former Cleveland shortstop Asdrúbal Cabrera and Orioles third baseman Hanser Alberto. It is not that 2.0 WAR players grow on trees, it is that the $11 million Hernández was set to earn goes a long way in other places, while his value can be at least offset by a minor leaguer making the minimum.
Hernández is not the best point of comparison for a player like Naquin because of the former entering his final year of arbitration. The same applies to Kevin Pillar, who like Naquin accrued 1.5 WAR in 2019, but was let go by the San Francisco Giants after making $5.8 million in his second year of arbitration.
2020’s second-year arbitration outfielders are a solid group, with Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto among them. Pham and his projected $8.6 million award were just dealt from Tampa to San Diego to cut costs.
Naquin’s career to date falls between Delino DeShields ($2.4 million projected salary), Michael A. Taylor ($3.25M), Nomar Mazara ($5.7M) and Chris Taylor ($5M) among this year’s second year OFs. There is no direct example to point to for Naquin. Chris Taylor is the only player in the group to boast more than one season of a 100 wRC+ (league average) but also plays shortstop and outfield. Mazara has three 20 HR seasons to his name and slugged 19 in 2019.
DeShields has 2.1 and 1.6 seasons to his name, with a pair of sub-1 years, very close to Naquin, but also has elite speed. He made $1.4 million in 2019, posting 0.8 WAR over 118 games.
Naquin is expected to return from a torn ACL between mid-April and mid-June. Given the Indians’ lack of success in the outfield recently, one would expect the lefty to find his way back into right field at some point.
If Naquin repeats a league-average season at the plate while playing above-average defense in right field, his suppressed numbers may also suppress his salary to the point that he makes sense to retain for a cash-strapped club.
If he struggles to fully recover from his injury while nearing 30, any price may be too steep.
No ACL tear is a good one, or comes at a good time, but for a sub-2 WAR corner outfielder nearing judgment day, Naquin's recovery time is of the essence.
With other pre-arbitration corner outfielders in tow, the Indians could join the rest of the league in opting out of team control earlier than before, depending on how 2020 goes.
