Will the Indians Offense Finally Get Going to Help Support the Team's Excellent Pitching?

The game Saturday between the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers marks the 27th game of the season, which would be the 1/6th point of a normal 162 game slate.

While many baseball people like to point to the quarter pole of a season (40 games), we think 27 games is effective because the campaign has gone along enough to make some judgments.

Despite occasional flashes from Tribe hitters, you have to conclude that the Cleveland offense isn’t very effective. The Indians rank 15th, that’s dead last, in the AL in runs scored per game, just behind Seattle.

The other four teams that join them in the bottom five of this category have a combined 38-68 record, which is a .358 winning percentage.

The bottom five in the National League have a combined record of 44-60, which is a slightly better, but still poor .423 record of winning.

Therefore, it is remarkable that Cleveland has a 17-10 record despite their limited ability to score runs, but it seems important to winning games, that you have to produce some runs.

It also points to how unbelievable the Tribe pitching has been this season. We anticipated the Indians might struggle to score runs because the bottom of their batting order was largely unproven, or in their because of their defense.

The outfield was thought to be a possible problem all winter. It’s one of the reasons they signed Domingo Santana. As of today, the highest OPS of the bottom four in the lineup (most frequently Santana, Tyler Naquin, Roberto Perez, and Delino DeShields) is 648. The league average is 735.

However, the top of the lineup has also performed less than anticipated, with only Franmil Reyes and Cesar Hernandez doing what was expected.

Reyes is the only Indian hitter with an OPS over 800 (844), and the only Cleveland player with a slugging percentage of over .450 and an on base percentage over .350.

Hernandez has done his job, which was to get on base. He has a .360 on base percentage, and has seen a lot of pitches and worked counts.

Carlos Santana has been a walk machine, leading the league by a wide margin (27, next best player has 20), but he has just five extra base hits on the season, two doubles and three home runs, with a batting average of just .200.

Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, the duo supposed to be the best offensive players on the team, have really scuffled.

Lindor is hitting .234 with just six walks (686 OPS), and has grounded into a league high seven double plays.

To our eye, he is trying to pull outside pitches instead of hitting them into the gaps. And he is swinging at a lot of borderline pitches when he is ahead in the count.

The last couple of days, he is taking a bit of an opposite field approach in an effort to stay on the ball, and has had some hits.

Ramirez has had a couple of huge games (a pair of two homer contests), but hitting only .230, and hasn’t had a hit since last Sunday.

He has taken some walks (he’s in the top ten in the AL), but has really been feast or famine in 2020, mostly the latter.

If the trio of Ramirez, Lindor, and Carlos Santana aren’t producing on a consistent basis, this offense is in big trouble.

Their track records indicate they will hit at some point, but until then, it’s pretty ugly. We’ve seen suggestions of moving Lindor back to the leadoff spot recently, but we don’t think that’s a good remedy.

His career high in on base percentage (2016) is .358, which is less than what Hernandez is giving the team now.

Terry Francona and the front office can keep shuffling the deck in the outfield, but what will that accomplish? The hope that someone gets hot?

Hope isn’t a plan. Until the mainstays of the Cleveland lineup (Ramirez, Lindor, Santana) get going, this offense is going to struggle. The pitching will need to remain excellent until that happens.