Stat Predictions for the Padres Outfield in 2026 - Will They Be the Best Trio in Baseball?

The brightest positional outlook for the Padres heading into the 2026 season is the outfield. The trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Ramón Laureano will see its first full season together, and with other parts of the roster still in question, the group will be asked to carry a heavy load.

The three stars are expected to round out the top four of San Diego’s batting order alongside future hall-of-famer Manny Machado, giving the Padres one of the most formidable top-fours in the National League.

Although the Dodgers added Kyle Tucker and the Giants brought in Harrison Bader, the outfield rankings remain unchanged. San Diego will enter 2026 with the best outfield in the N.L. West - and all of baseball. The pressure now falls on the trio to live up to the hype.

According to ZiPS, the group is projected to combine for 11.5 WAR in 2026, though a dominant season from Tatis could push that total even higher.

Here is a look at the projected 2026 outfield:

Ramón Laureano

Laureano enjoyed the best season of his career in 2025 and took his game to another level after joining the Padres in a trade from the Orioles at the deadline. His 138 wRC+ led the team.

There are some sustainability questions, as he benefited from a .331 BABIP, but underlying metrics suggest much of that success was earned. According to Statcast, Laureano ranked in the 85th percentile in barrel rate, 84th in hard-hit rate and 76th in sweet-spot rate. Even with some regression, he should still provide strong production.

Defensively, there is also room for improvement after he finished a career-low minus-8.7 outs above average, per FanGraphs.

.270/.335/.450
24 HR / 75 RBI / 69 R / 10 SB
118 wRC+ / minus-3.0 defensive OAA

Jackson Merrill

Merrill enters 2026 looking to rebound from a mild sophomore slump. Even so, that “down” season still resulted in a 3.0 WAR and a 116 wRC+, just short of the expectations set by his All-Star rookie year.

A return to his 20-plus home run power and improved baserunning would significantly boost his overall value. Last season, Merrill hit 16 home runs and stole just one base.

Despite that, the underlying indicators remain strong. Merrill finished in the 82nd percentile in barrel rate and the 99th percentile in sweet-spot percentage. Elevating the ball more consistently will unlock another jump in production.

.284/.327/.477
22 HR / 80 RBI / 80 R / 15 SB
127 wRC+ / plus-3.5 defensive OAA

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Saving the best for last, Tatis remains the face of the franchise. He delivered a dominant 2025 season while fully embracing his role as the leadoff hitter, setting career highs with 111 runs scored and 32 stolen bases.

Projected to remain in the leadoff spot, Tatis should continue to utilize his speed while maintaining his power. The biggest factor for his overall value, however, will be defense. While he’s typically a net positive with a power arm, his defensive impact can fluctuate during injury-affected seasons when he’s less engaged.

If Tatis stays healthy and locked in throughout the year, he’ll once again be a five-tool star firmly in the MVP conversation.

.265/.340/.480
30 HR / 75 RBI / 120 R / 25 SB
132 wRC+ / plus-4.1 defensive OAA