Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker, but Padres Still Hold the Outfield Advantage in 2026

The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed another superstar free agent - this time left fielder Kyle Tucker - to a whopping four-year, $240 million contract. The news is especially demoralizing for the Padres, who will face L.A. 19 times in 2026.

Full details on Kyle Tucker's Dodgers contract, per ESPN sources:

- 4 years, $240 million guaranteed
- Opt-outs after Years 2 and 3
- $64M signing bonus
- $30M deferred
- $57.1M a year in net present value after factoring in deferrals -- a record by $6M+

A staggering deal.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 16, 2026

While he didn’t have a dominant year for the Chicago Cubs in 2025, Tucker still maintained his reputation as one of baseball’s premier bats. He posted:

22 home runs
25 stolen bases
.363 wOBA
136 wRC+

Although the move cements the Dodgers as an objectively superior offense to San Diego, it doesn’t firmly give them a head-to-head advantage when comparing outfields.

Along with Tucker in right field, manager Dave Roberts is expected to roll out Andy Pages in center field and Teoscar Hernández in left field. It’s a premier group, but it doesn’t quite match the firepower of San Diego’s trio.

Oct 4, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs designated hitter Kyle Tucker (30) flies out against the Milwaukee Brewers during the sixth inning of game one of the NLDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at American Family Field. | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Led by superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres outfield projects to be a major run producer. Alongside Tatis are 2024 All-Star Jackson Merrill and trade deadline acquisition Ramón Laureano.

Each group features a mix of lefties and righties, veterans and youth, and sheer star power. It’s going to be a blast to watch these teams go head to head all season. Heading into 2026, however, the Padres still hold the edge in outfield talent.

With an estimated combined ZiPS WAR of 11.5 for 2026, the Padres’ group should significantly outperform the Dodgers (8.1 projected ZiPS WAR), even after the addition of Tucker.

The stars - Tatis and Tucker - are both projected to maintain their production, but Tatis’ defense will almost always give him the edge in overall value.

In 2026, Tatis will look to build on a +5.1 defensive rating (via FanGraphs), while Tucker has never posted a full season of positive defensive value.

For the supporting casts, the key difference lies in center field. Merrill, who still produced a solid 3.0 WAR in 2025, is projected to increase that total to 4.4 in 2026 with improved health. Pages, on the other hand, benefited from a .308 BABIP last season that doesn’t align with his Statcast metrics.

It’s nearly impossible for a player to sustain a .300-plus BABIP when their barrel rate (45%) and hard-hit rate (24%) fall below 50%. Somehow, Pages managed it, but it’s doubtful he comes close to that same production again.

The final comparison - the veterans - is the most interesting and unpredictable. Hernández, a certified power hitter, posted one of the worst seasons of his career in 2025. Laureano, meanwhile, enjoyed a breakout campaign.

With Hernández recording his first sub-1.0 WAR season since 2019 and Laureano posting his first 3.0-plus WAR season since that same year, both players are projected to settle into the 1.5–2.5 range. The comparison is too close to give either a confident edge, but it’s unlikely Hernández’s production makes up for the advantage Tatis and Merrill hold over their counterparts.

Like Pages, Laureano benefited from a high BABIP in 2025, but his underlying metrics supported it. He jumped to the 85th percentile in barrel rate and the 84th percentile in hard-hit rate. Scouting adjustments may lower those numbers, but this wasn’t simply luck.

Hernández hit the ball reasonably well in 2025 (72nd percentile barrel rate, 65th percentile hard-hit rate), but at age 33, it’s unlikely those numbers increase. After five consecutive seasons with a .335-plus BABIP from 2020–24, it appears that stretch may be coming to a permanent end.

Ultimately, this battle of elite outfields will be decided by actual production, not projections. With talent on both sides and the Padres searching for every possible edge against the big-spending Dodgers, winning this head-to-head matchup will be crucial if they hope to stay competitive in a brutal National League West.