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Fangraphs Ranks Phillies' Rotation Near Top of MLB

Fangraphs preseason starting rotation rankings came out this week. Where do they position the Philadelphia Phillies' starting staff?

Author:
Ben Silver
Apr 7, 2022 3:00 PM EDT

It might seem like longer ago, but it's been just four years since the Philadelphia Phillies have had a consistent starting rotation. Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez were the starting five of the future.

That year, the Opening Day five-man rotation started, on average, 30 games per player. The Phillies Opening Day rotation hasn't come anywhere close to the total in the three years since or the 24 years prior, going all the way to 1993.

Now only two players remain from that young core, Nola, and Eflin, on the last year of his contract.

The Phillies have supplanted Jake Arrieta with another lavishly paid free agent, Zack Wheeler, Nick Pivetta with another under-the-radar prospect in Ranger Suárez, and Vince Velasquez with Kyle Gibson.

Each member of the rotation has high upside—with the exception of Gibson—and a somewhat considerable floor to their potential.

Fangraphs recognized this and placed the Phillies third in their pre-season starting rotation power rankings.

Behind only the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees, the Phillies have a fearsome starting-five. The club is bolstered by the fact that Fangraphs projects over 150 innings out of every starter.

Wheeler is projected for 195, Nola for 191, Gibson for 189, Suárez for 164 and Eflin for 156. Consistency is key in baseball over a 162-game season. It seems the Phillies will be one of the most effective teams at retaining that.

Fangraphs projects no other team's top-five starters to throw as many innings as the Phillies top-five.

While others may be more efficient, the Phillies are still respectable, projected for a 4.07 ERA, with Wheeler posting the standout 3.46 ERA.

Of course, the Phillies defense will be responsible for adding to that team total ERA, but it's hard not to be optimistic when the Phillies have a consistent, proven starter taking the mound everyday.