Six-Man Rotation for Rangers in 2023?
The last two times Texas Rangers management has been made available to the media, the concept of a six-man rotation has come up.
General manager Chris Young fielded the question during Andrew Heaney’s introductory press conference on Dec. 15. Manager Bruce Bochy fielded it during an informal interview with reporters last week.
Is it possible that idea takes on added momentum — or at least discussion— after the Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi on Tuesday?
The Rangers set out to improve their starting pitching this offseason. The Rangers have gone from a team with one veteran starter under contract for 2023 — Jon Gray — to six, with the additions of Jacob deGrom, Jake Odorizzi, Heaney and Eovaldi, along with retaining Rangers Pitcher of the Year Martín Pérez on a one-year qualifying offer.
Plus, the Rangers have four young starters that don’t, at least for now, have a spot in the rotation — Glenn Otto, Dane Dunning, Spencer Howard and Cole Ragans. Plus, there’s a significant amount of talent in the minors, led by Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Cole Winn and Owen White.
It’s a largesse that was unthinkable two months ago. Is a six-man rotation thinkable now?
Young didn’t directly address whether the Rangers would entertain the possibility. He talked about having a competitive rotation, now made more so with Eovaldi. He said the quality of the pitchers brought in was a step up from a couple of years ago. He also mentioned health, and that’s important in this case.
“Obviously there's a health and medical component that we want to be aware of and manage workloads and keep these guys on the field and it'll be an important aspect of our success as a team next year,” Young said.
While the Rangers now have six veteran starting pitchers, all are over the age of 30 and Pérez was the only one that avoided the injured list last season. Eovaldi spent more than a month on the injured list. deGrom, Odorrizi, Heaney and Gray each spent at least two months on the injured list. deGrom, for all his success, hasn’t pitched a full season since 2019.
A six-man rotation sounds like something that might help. The Rangers currently use it in their minor league system. If the Rangers employed one, it would mean that each starter, assuming the ability to make each start, would start 27 games.
In a five-man rotation, starters typically make up to 35 starts in a season.
Bochy was asked about a six-man rotation and admitted he’s never managed one in his more than 20 years on a Major League bench. But he’s willing to listen.
“No, we haven't talked about that,” Bochy said. “Doesn't mean we've ruled that out. We're always gonna be open minded if we think it's what's best for the rotation or, you know, load management, things like that.”
Professional sports is all about following the trend. And, right now, there is a growing trend around the six-man rotation.
The Los Angeles Angels started using it in 2018 as a way of preserving the health of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Notable, the Angels continued to use it while Ohtani was recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The San Diego Padres employed it in 2022 to help blend Mike Clevinger back into the rotation after he recovered from Tommy John surgery.
Of course, winning is the ultimate trend-setter, and the Houston Astros used a six-man rotation during their World Series run last season. They used it, like the Padres, because two pitchers — Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. — were making recoveries from Tommy John surgery. They even traded away a starter to make room for McCullers, which just happened to be Odorizzi.
Sports Illustrated pointed out that both the Padres and the Astros saw success as measured by both traditional baseball numbers and modern analytics. The Padres’ rotation ranked second in innings (667), third in K/9 (9.2), seventh in fWAR (10.5) and 10th in ERA (3.78). The Astros’ rotation led all teams in rotation fWAR (12.9) and innings (684 1/3), ranked second in ERA (3.10) and fourth in WPA (6.2).
Fangraphs explored some of the pros of the six-man rotation back in 2021. For instance, a pitcher that averages six innings per start would see their workload drop 30 innings, from 192 innings in a five-man rotation to 162 innings in a six-man rotation. In some cases, the math shows that adding a sixth man to the rotation may not appreciably impact the amount of runs a team gives up.
For instance, Fangraphs estimated that if the Rangers’ 2021 rotation added a sixth starter it would have only cost them an additional 0.27 runs, or 4.8 additional runs, for the season, based on what the staff’s ERA would have been. That was fifth-best in MLB.
There are two obvious cons. First, who exactly would be that sixth starter? In the Rangers’ case, it could be someone like Eovaldi, who was an All-Star just a season ago. If the Rangers had attempted to employ a sixth starter last season, it might have been a pitcher like Taylor Hearn, who struggled in that role but later exceled after he was moved to the bullpen. The quality of the staff can start, or end, the argument.
Second, the Rangers just shoveled $185 million for five seasons of Jacob deGrom, and he’s already stated his goal is to pitch at least 30 games in 2023. Can someone like Young and Bochy convince him otherwise, if the goal is to preserve his health?
Baseball is a stubborn game. Four-man rotations persisted into the 1970s, even as most teams shifted to the five-man rotation. The five-man rotation has been the standard now for decades.
The standard is starting to shift, subtly. The Astros’ run to a championship with a six-man rotation may be the tipping point.
Are the Rangers jumping on board, or just building depth for inevitable injuries?
For now, no one is saying. But the Rangers are at least prepared to take the dip.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard
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