Red Sox's Odds Of Getting No. 1 Pick In 2023 MLB Draft With First-Ever Lottery

Boston could claim a top-six draft pick

Could the Boston Red Sox claim the top selection in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft? 

Thanks to the first-ever MLB Lottery Draft any team that missed the postseason has a shot to claim the top pick.

In previous years, the Red Sox would be slotted into the No. 14 pick in the draft with no ability to move up or down. The new rules allow a chance for Boston to claim a top-six pick, or fall below No. 14 if things go awry for the Red Sox.

All odds calculated via Tankathon

Here are the odds for Boston to claim each pick in the 2023 MLB Draft:

No. 1 Pick -- 0.76%
No. 2 Pick -- 0.90%
No. 3 Pick -- 1.00%
No. 4 Pick -- 1.20%
No. 5 Pick -- 1.40%
No. 6 Pick -- 1.70%

Cannot Get Nos. 7-13

No. 14 Pick -- 78.9%
No. 15 Pick -- 13.6%
No. 16 Pick -- 0.60%

The Red Sox also have a minute chance of getting either the Nos. 17 or 18 picks but that would be nearly impossible. 

These numbers give Boston roughly a 7% chance of landing in the top six, which would be a massive win for Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and company. 

While nothing has been confirmed, the first-ever MLB Lottery Draft is expected to be held during the winter meetings according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, with Dec. 6 rumored to be a potential target date. 

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