Despite Strong Start, the Royals Have Heard the Ryan O’Hearn Story Before
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The Kansas City Royals have been one of the best teams in Major League Baseball's 2022 spring training slate thus far, and several players have managed to stand out. First baseman/outfielder/designated hitter Ryan O'Hearn is one of them.
Through a handful of games, O'Hearn is 9-for-17 at the plate and has a pair of home runs. His .529/.529/1.000 line makes for a very healthy 1.529 OPS. In a very limited sample size, he's been one of the top performers from any team in the Cactus League. While this level of success would be particularly noteworthy for a less experienced player, O'Hearn has been around for a while. He's also had good spring training stretches before.
Mar 27, 2022; Mesa, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Ryan O'Hearn (66) hits a home run in the sixth inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
Last spring, O'Hearn collected nine hits in 49 at-bats. That's good for just a .209 batting average, but O'Hearn's .306 OBP and .628 SLG combined for a .934 OPS. That's an excellent mark for a player of his caliber, and his five home runs in 21 games also served as a reminder of the 24-year-old slugger who got called up and clobbered 12 home runs in 44 games as a rookie in 2018. After that, though, O'Hearn fell flat.
Since his shockingly productive 2018 quarter-campaign, O'Hearn has played in 231 games for the Royals. Across those 756 plate appearances, he's posted a .205/.280/.358 line and a .638 OPS. Subpar hitting was acceptable in a pandemic-shortened 2020 season that saw him walk at a 13.6% clip, but that number fell to a paltry 5.1% last season. O'Hearn's strikeout rate, on the other hand, has been an even 28% in back-to-back years.
Defensively, O'Hearn doesn't offer much value to the Royals. He's a noted negative at first base and in the outfield, the sample size hasn't been large enough to draw a significant conclusion. FanGraphs marked him down for a 1.3 UZR in right field last season, albeit in 167 innings of work. Members of the team such as Michael A. Taylor — who struggle at the plate — are worth keeping in the lineup due to their elite defense. O'Hearn doesn't bring that to the table.
If a player is an inconsistent defender and a poor hitter who doesn't get on base enough to counteract his anemic bat and he lacks great speed, what's his role? O'Hearn is either a first baseman who's a net negative, an outfielder who is likely still a negative, or a designated hitter who doesn't hit. That isn't a great foundation for success, and his age (28, turning 29 in July) hints that he is what he is at this point.
There are rumblings that O'Hearn's alterations from the 2021-22 offseason are paying off. That could be the case, but history suggests that it isn't. The Royals have seen O'Hearn post impressive numbers during the spring, only to regress once regular season baseball begins. Realistically, this electric start will likely see its power die out in due time.
Nothing is impossible, and players can make tweaks during the offseason that pay dividends, but the Royals may want to proceed with caution. O'Hearn can go on streaks where he's a legitimate bat in the lineup, and his raw power is still there. With that said, he has yet to fully tap into it and should be smack-dab in the middle of his prime. That doesn't bode well for him and while a terrific spring is a great story, its ultimate value won't be revealed until the regular season is in full swing.
Mar 27, 2022; Mesa, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Ryan O'Hearn (66) hits a home run in the first inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
