Is It Too Early to Draw a Conclusion on Jose Cuas?
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Anyone who's been keeping up with the Kansas City Royals over the past month or so is familiar with the story of Jose Cuas.
A player who once (or twice) considered quitting the game of baseball is now at the big-league level, and it came after impressing in the minors to prove that his transformation from position player to pitcher was legit. In 321/3 innings with Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2021, the 6-foot-3 righty spun a 1.95 ERA and recorded three saves in 22 games. He appeared in three games with Triple-A Omaha as well, not allowing a single earned run in the process.
Cuas began the 2022 campaign in Omaha again, this time appearing in 20 games and tossing 202/3 innings. The results weren't much different, however, as he saw his ERA sit at a minuscule 1.74 and his batting average against settle at .203. This prompted Cuas to get called up and debut with the big-league club on May 31, and the raw numbers he's posted since then have been intriguing, to say the least.
Jul 2, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Jose Cuas (74) pitches in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
In a month and change entering play on Tuesday, Cuas has a 1.98 ERA with the Royals and has appeared in 17 games (132/3 innings pitched). With that said, numbers such as his .237 BABIP, his 3.95 BB/9, his 3.57 xERA and his 4.36 FIP all indicate that he isn't actually a dominant relief pitcher. Instead, they indicate that some regression to the mean is in store. What does the rest of Cuas' profile say about where he's at and where he could be headed?
Cuas relies almost solely on his fastball-slider combo, with the sinker occupying 65.7% of his overall usage this season. It tends to sit on the lower-inside quadrant of the plate against right-handed hitters or the lower-outside one against lefties. It's far from a dominant pitch, as it averages 93 mph and opponents are hitting .294 against it. Cuas' sinker hovers around league average in both vertical and horizontal movement as well. Per Baseball Savant, it has a run value of minus-2 in 2022.
The slider, while also posting a minus-2 run value, appears to be a totally different level of pitch. Implemented 32.4% of the time, it sits at 81.5 mph on average and generates 12% more vertical movement and 66% less horizontal movement than the league average offering of that kind. This, along with Cuas' unorthodox, submarine-style delivery, contributes to his 55.3% ground-ball rate in 2022 (it was 64.3% in Triple-A earlier this year). In 18 plate appearances when facing Cuas' slider, opponents have yet to record a single hit against it. Cuas does have a curveball in his repertoire, although it's been thrown just four times this year.
From a sheer "stuff" standpoint, it makes sense to reason that Cuas can't get by with his current arsenal forever. His slider is performing extremely well right now, although the fastball isn't good enough to make for a world-class pairing. That also shows in his K/9 rate, as it's dropped from 8.91 in Double-A last year to just 6.59 with the Royals this year. He has a bread-and-butter offering and the fastball is competent, but hitters may catch on at some point soon.
With that said, the 28-year-old has managed to outperform his underlying peripherals for a few years in a row and simply could be an outlier of sorts. He doesn't allow a ton of hard contact and the aforementioned slider is working wonders for him thus far. Patience is absolutely necessary here, as Cuas doesn't have a huge sample size to go off of and there is quite a bit of data suggesting that he'll come back down to earth in due time. Even if he does, Kansas City could have a respectable reliever on its hands. If he doesn't, it wouldn't be the first time that he's defied the odds.
