Yankees-Red Sox Prediction: Can New York Advance in the AL Wild Card Game?

The New York Yankees travel to face the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in the American League Wild Card Game. Will the Yankees win and advance to the ALDS?

Author:
Max Goodman
Publish date:
Oct 5, 2021 5:29 PM EDT

Last week at Fenway Park, the Yankees made a statement, sweeping the Red Sox to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Now, the next chapter of baseball's most storied rivalry will be written in October, a winner-take-all ballgame in Boston to decide who advances to the American League Division Series.

Who will move on in the AL Wild Card Game? Let's break down the matchup before predicting the result.

Yankees @ Red Sox

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET

Pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole vs. Nathan Eovaldi

The Yankees started this season 0-7 against Boston, getting swept twice in June before losing the opener of their third series one month later.

That's when New York turned it around, winning nine of their final 12 games against the Red Sox. In fact, the Bombers ended the year winning all six of their head-to-head matchups with their rival.

Looking back, the Yankees' performance against Boston was on brand with their season-long tendencies. This team is as streaky as it gets, often looking inept for certain stretches before flipping a switch and playing championship-caliber baseball.

The question on Tuesday is which version of this team will we see in a do-or-die contest at Fenway Park? Will we see unforced errors contribute to another gut-wrenching loss or is Tuesday the night they catch fire and go on a run?

Just because Gerrit Cole is on the mound, doesn't mean New York will cruise to a victory. Cole has struggled at Fenway this season, allowing 11 earned runs over 16 innings pitched (good for a 6.19 ERA over three starts). He also enters play on Tuesday on a bit of a cold streak, giving up 15 ER over his final 17.2 innings pitched of the regular season.

On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi toes the rubber for Boston, looking to shut down his former team on the national stage. Eovaldi has posted a 3.71 ERA against the Bombers over six starts against them this season, striking out 34 batters in as many innings.

Can New York's offense lean on the familiarity to pounce on Eovaldi early—like they did two weekends ago in their previous matchup with the right-hander, putting up seven earned runs over 2.2 frames—or will Boston's hard-throwing hurler keep the Bombers' bats dormant?

With all of that in mind, as you get ready for first pitch, here's a prediction of how the Yankees will fare on Tuesday night.

Max Goodman's prediction: Yankees 6, Red Sox 5

It wouldn't be a 2021 New York Yankees game without some late-inning drama, right?

I think this Wild Card Game will come down the wire, similar to the final two ballgames New York played at Fenway two weekends ago.

Cole goes five-plus innings, giving up a few runs but racking up double-digit strikeouts. The only reason Aaron Boone calls to the bullpen in the sixth is Cole's pitch count is in the triple digits and Boston is starting to put together more quality at-bats seeing him a second and third time.

Rafael Devers has had so much success against Cole this year, too. It's hard not to imagine him giving Boston an edge early against the Bombers' ace.

Meanwhile, New York's offense starts slow against Eovaldi, but is able to break through in the middle innings, making this a bullpen game for both sides.

At that point, as much as they've been inconsistent this year, I'm putting my faith in New York's 'pen. This unit that Boone has at his disposal is the best it's been all year. Plus, the best arms from that group have been lights out over the last several games and weeks.

While the score remains knotted, Boone summons Jonathan Loáisiga and Chad Green to keep the bats in position to strike. That's when someone steps up in the bottom of the order, setting the scene for leadoff hitter Anthony Rizzo to drive in the eventual game-winning run.

Aroldis Chapman runs into some trouble in the ninth as he tries to close it out—putting runners on with an erratic start to the inning—but finishes off the frame to secure a trip to the ALDS for the Yankees.

Again, I've got my eye on Rizzo in this ballgame, setting the table early on—scoring a few runs—and coming up big later in the game. His experience in these big moments will have him ready and as much as he's contributed since the trade deadline, fans are still waiting for a true signature moment from the first baseman. What better time than now.

Also, with Andrew Velazquez getting the start at shortstop, this ensures that Boone has Tyler Wade available to come off the bench in the final few innings. Don't be surprised if Wade steals a bag with the game on the line or just has an impact with his legs in some way, similar to what the speedster accomplished on Sunday in Game 162.

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