2023 NBA Draft: Evaluating Arkansas’ Nick Smith Jr
Nick Smith Jr was the consensus number one prospect coming out of high school for his class per 247 Sports. The season had some highs and lows for him as he battled a right knee injury and had pain in it for most of the season. Despite never finding a consistent rhythm, he still impressed a lot of scouts and NBA front offices with his skill. Let's dive into why Smith is still a potential lottery pick despite the inconsistent season.
Scoring Instincts
Smith is easily one of the most talented shot-makers and shot-creators in the entire draft. The freshman is a skilled perimeter scorer that can make a variety of difficult shots off the dribble. He loves to operate from the mid-range area but is also comfortable operating out from three. His style of play can be a bit inefficient but it’s a much better fit for the NBA than what it was for college.
The 6-foot-5 guard has the upside to score at an extremely high level. He plays with great pace and can play at different speeds. The scoring guard has a shifty handle and a variety of different moves in his bag. He’s not very bursty or has the quickest first step, but the shiftiness he possesses makes up for it.
Shooting Ability
Smith is a really good shooter off the catch. The scoring guard has shown flashes as a movement shooter coming off a variety of different screens and actions. Smith is a knockdown shooter standing still, especially when a defender is giving him enough space. Arkansas’ freshman guard has a great combination of elite touch and a high release which are two positive indicators when projecting how good of a shooter someone will be at the next level.
The eye test indicates that Smith is a much better shooter than what his 33.8% shooting mark indicates. He's a shooter that had a lot of clean makes this year which included a lot of swishes which indicates he has pure shooting ability. The combo guard is a bit streaky from the outside, but the shooting upside is there.
Elite Floater
Smith has an elite floater in the lane and arguably the best floater in the entire 2023 NBA draft. The skilled prospect has the ability to get his floater off at any time due to his ability to finish off one or two feet and being very effective with his floater when driving left or right. Smith’s versatility with his floaters and craftiness as a finisher should translate smoothly to the NBA. The Arkansas native has an elite touch on his floaters as a lot of them are clean swishes from a variety of different spots on the floor.
Back in 2021 when he played on Brad Beal Elite in AAU he shot 72% on his floaters which ranked him in the top percentile in his graduation class. The ability to float shots over rim protectors will help in the pick and roll against the drop. This is easily his most translatable skill to the NBA and will be effective day one in the league.
Biggest Area of Improvement
Smith lacks a quick first step and burst off the dribble which ultimately limits him from putting much pressure on the rim. The freshman guard struggles to blow-by defenders in a straight line which often forces him into taking a difficult floater or mid-range pull-up jumper. Due to these struggles, the lack of pressure on the rim makes him a bit inefficient on the offensive due to the majority of his shot attempts being jumpers.
Smith’s struggles to get consistent paint touches led to him shooting under 40% inside the arc which is far below-average for a lottery projected guard. The lack of strength and explosiveness limits him as a finisher through contact. The touch isn’t really an issue as a finisher for Smith, it’s more so the lack of a true NBA frame and athletic tools.
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