2024 NBA Draft: Keshad Johnson Scouting Report
Keshad Johnson is a graduate senior on Arizona who will be 23.0 years old at the time of the 2024 NBA Draft.
Introduction
Johnson is a 6-foot-7, 225 pound defensive-first wing who is capable of fulfilling the "Strength-4" archetype. Johnson has potential as a point-of-attack defender due to his length, solid lateral quickness and strength. He's an active off-ball defender, as he tags rollers, helps at the nail and conducts other key rotations consistently. Additionally, he's strong enough to hold his own in the post and is an impactful rebounder as well. Offensively, Johnson is developing his catch-and-shoot threes, has shown flashes of getting downhill in the short roll and has shown the capability to execute dribble handoffs.
Let's dive into why I think Johnson should be considered in the early second round of the 2024 NBA Draft:
Offense
Catch-and-Shoot Threes
Johnson is converting 37.5% of his catch-and-shoot threes this season (64 attempts) after shooting 24.6% on catch-and-shoot threes over his four seasons at San Diego State University (114 total attempts). This season, he's also shooting 73.8% from the free throw line (84 attempts) after converting only 60.9% of his free throws (220 attempts) at San Diego State. However, while his shot seems to be continuously improving as the season goes on, his shot prep can be a little slow — which can be an issue against NBA defenders who cover more ground and have the speed and length to recover quicker. This is evident even at Arizona, as he's shooting an impressive 46.2% on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes (39 attempts) but only 24% on guarded catch-and-shoot threes (25 attempts).
Potential as a Screener
In addition to being a developing shooter in catch-and-shoot situations, Johnson is capable in dribble handoff situations and can get downhill in the short roll at times.
Defense
Point of Attack & Driving Defense
Keshad Johnson is a strong on-ball defender, capable of shutting down drives from guards and bigs. He uses his chest well defensively, walling off drives while also having enough lateral quickness and length to contest shots at the rim and cloud potential passing lanes.
Rotations/Help Defense
The 6-foot-7 graduate senior is a smart off-ball defender as well, and he consistently provides value with key rotations, tagging rollers, helping at the nail and stunting drivers. Johnson has recorded a 1.9 steal percentage and 3.4 block percentage so far this season and opponents are only shooting 25.7% at the rim against him (98th Points Per Shot percentile).
Post Defense
Johnson also has a strong enough base to hold his position in the post against most non-bigs.
Rebounding
Johnson provides value as a rebounder as well, as he grabs contested rebounds on both ends of the floor (9.2 offensive rebounding percentage).
Conclusion
The “Strength-4” archetype, popularized by Adam Spinella, consists of players like PJ Tucker, Robert Covington, Grant Williams, Jae Crowder and Dorian Finney-Smith. All of these players are stronger, defensive-first “4s” with size that are excellent on-ball defenders, smart off-ball defenders, have some level of catch-and-shoot impact in the NBA and have high role acceptance. While not the flashiest archetype, at 6-foot-7, 215 pounds, a developing catch-and-shoot three, strong on-ball defense and helpful off-ball defense, Johnson has a high likelihood of meeting this same archetype that is seen fairly consistently on championship-level teams.
At 23 years old, only one year of a catch-and-shoot and free throw sample size, a clear dichotomy between unguarded and guarded catch-and-shoot threes — despite his form improving throughout the season — and an unclear ability to have an offensive impact other than spot-up threes, Johnson should be valued closest to an early second round pick.
Possible Low Outcome (and Why)
Despite an increasingly fluid form, Johnson’s shot prep isn’t quick enough to hit catch-and-shoot threes at 35%-plus clip at the NBA level. If he’s not efficient enough from beyond the arc, this would lead to a reduction in shooting gravity and negatively impact spacing. Would dealing with this on the offensive end be worth the value he could bring defensively? Would you be able to play him when it matters if teams could sag off the corner?
Therefore, the low outcome is closer to a 15 minutes per game defensive “4” that shuts down a few drives, helps off-ball, grabs a few boards and gets played off the floor late in games or in the playoffs if he shrinks the floor.
Possible High Outcome (and Why)
Keshad Johnson’s form on catch-and-shoot threes continues to increase in fluidity, his shot prep quickens enough to be effective from corners and, therefore, he can space the floor enough offensively. Additionally, he can execute dribble handoffs consistently, can be used as a roller on occasion and creates second-chance opportunities with offensive boards. Johnson’s defense translates and he reaches the point of a defensive stopper and consistent defensive helper. On the high end, fulfilling this archetype could lead to being the starting “4” on a championship-level team.
| Name | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|
PJ Tucker | 6'5" | 245 lbs |
Jae Crowder | 6'6" | 234 lbs |
Robert Covington | 6'7" | 209 lbs |
Grant Williams | 6'6" | 236 lbs |
Dorian Finney-Smith | 6'7" | 220 lbs |
Keshad Johnson | 6'7" | 225 lbs |
Grade: Early 2nd
If you want a more visually appealing version of this report, check out my link to one here.
All play-by-play data referenced is courtesy of Synergy Sports.
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