International Spotlight: Agustin Ubal Breaks Out at AmeriCup
Background
While the eyes of the basketball world have been fixed on Eurobasket for the past couple of weeks, the FIBA AmeriCup has flown mostly under the radar. While it’s true that the AmeriCup certainly didn’t have the level of star power of its European counterpart, there wasn’t a lack of future NBA talent at the competition. One of the players who made his case at the event, improving his draft stock ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft was Uruguay’s Agustin Ubal.
NBA scouts might have caught their first glimpse of Ubal in Las Vegas last month, as he dropped 10 points in just 12 minutes against a USA team mostly composed of G League players, in what was a 105-71 blowout loss for Uruguay. Ubal, however, had been one of the brightest prospects in South America for many years prior to that.
After dominating junior levels of competition playing for Malvin in Uruguay, Ubal moved across the Atlantic in 2019, at just 16 years old, to sign with Barcelona, where he quickly became a staple of their talented junior squads. Ubal saw a few minutes for Barcelona’s senior team, before being loaned out to a different team in the Spanish ACB, Rio Breogan, late in the 2021-22 season.
AmeriCup Takeaways
At AmeriCup, Ubal stood out immediately due to his combination of size and his versatile perimeter skillset. Standing at 6-foot-6 with long arms, Ubal didn’t exactly play as a point forward, but he brought the ball up often and showed an impressive ability to run an offense for his size, albeit in sporadic situations. Ubal has the vision, timing and touch to run pick-and-roll plays and deliver the ball to teammates through tight spaces, doing a good job of using his size difference against smaller guards to see and make passes over the top of the defense.
One of the reasons why Ubal was adept at creating offense for others is the gravity he was able to generate as a scorer, which started with his improved shooting ability. He connected on five of his ten 3-point attempts during the tournament and while it might not be a substantial sample size, the tape definitely shows the strides he has made as a shooter.
Ubal’s mechanics have improved significantly during the last few years, his shooting stroke is tremendously repeatable and consistent from attempt to attempt, showing a compact upper body with good alignment and a text-book followthrough. Despite not connecting on many attempts off-the-dribble, it’s clear that the shooting potential is there, and Uruguay took advantage of that by giving him a level of freedom to take shots that not many national teams would give to a 19-year-old.
Ubal showed a similar level of assertiveness as a driver, consistently putting pressure on the defense, getting by his opponent and creating advantages with his ability to change directions and speeds with the ball in his hands.
As consistent as he was at initiating drives, Ubal is not always able to maintain the separation that he creates, as he doesn’t generate a ton of power off of his second and third steps and has a tendency to pick up his dribble as soon as he sees help defenders coming his way, which makes it possible for his primary defender to catch up to him, erasing the space that he created with his first move.
Some of the concerns extend to his finishing as well, while Ubal is able to withstand contact and convert tough shots at the rim, he isn’t always able to create space against defenders via contact. This makes him rely on floaters and off-balance layups which he wasn’t able to convert at a high clip in this competition (just 43% from the paint in the AmeriCup according to InStat).
Both of these issues can be attributed to some degree to his noticeable lack of strength both in the upper and lower body, especially when compared to veteran pro players just like the ones he faced in this competition. While Ubal plays with energy and a good level of aggression, he wasn’t always able to move defenders physically, relying on tough shots and getting foul calls, which caused him to turn the ball over after contact when the whistle didn’t go his way.
However, the biggest question mark after this event has to do with his defensive fit, which is also connected to some degree to his lack of strength. Ubal’s center of gravity is at times too high to cover smaller guards, a task in which a defender getting low and being able to quickly turn his hips is key. If that proves the case going forward, then Ubal will be tasked primarily with defending bigger players just like he did here, where he spent most of his minutes at the three.
When taking into account his size and length, Ubal could potentially do a good job of defending wings in the future. At the AmeriCup, however, the sheer difference in strength with opposing wings and forwards was too much at times and he wasn’t always able to physically deter opponents from getting to their spots.
NBA Questions and Projections
It was certainly an auspicious start of the 2023 draft cycle for Ubal who certainly looked like Uruguay’s best player during a number of stretches in the tournament, especially in his 27-point outing against Colombia.
Ubal will be back in Spain next season, where according to local media he is likely to be loaned out to yet another Spanish ACB team. Once the 2022-23 season rolls around, the questions I expect many NBA teams to ask when evaluating Ubal mainly revolve around two concepts: sustainability and versatility.
Is this type of shooting performance sustainable through an entire season against pro level defenders? Can he be similarly efficient in his dribble jumpers as he was here in his catch-and-shoot attempts? Is he versatile enough to run an offense as a point forward or will he be limited to run the point just for a few possessions every game? Can he find a defensive on-ball role where he can be a positive contributor?
There’s always upside in betting on players who have wing size and are able to dribble, pass and shoot, but there’s a world of difference in the perceived value of a secondary initiator who can hit shots off the catch and the value of a true offensive engine, someone who can run the offense primarily, hit shots off the dribble and attack the rim. The closer Ubal gets to the latter archetype, the closer he will get to be the first Uruguayan ever drafted in the NBA.
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