International Spotlight: Paulius Murauskas' Shooting Potential
In last week’s edition of Overseas Round-Up, I mentioned Paulius Murauskas as one of the prospects to watch for the rest of the season, due to his productive output for Lietkabelis in the Lithuanian LKL at just 18 years of age.
Murauskas spent the bulk of his formative years playing for Lithuanian basketball powerhouse Zalgiris where, despite being dominant in youth competitions, he never had the opportunity to see significant minutes with the senior team. This year, Murauskas was loaned out to Lietkabelis, where he was able to not only find the necessary minutes for his development, but also to become an important contributor for the team.
Murauskas' NBA profile starts with his positional size and his tools. Standing at 6-foot-8 and having long arms, Murauskas plays with the mobility, coordination and fluidity of a wing. His optimal size for the position allows him to create mismatches against opponents in his current league, as he’s too fluid with the ball in his hands for opposing big men, and too strong and physically imposing for opposing guards and wings.
While his on-ball game has yielded good results in the LKL, the NBA is a different beast and he might have trouble creating his own shot due to a lack of a quick first step and his overreliance on converting tough shots against contact. Murauskas tends to play for fouls at times when he drives to the basket, but he doesn’t get to the line nearly enough, with his free throw rate hovering around the 20% mark.
The good news is that Murauskas' off-ball game has developed incredibly well, as he projects to be one of the best international shooting prospects in next year’s draft if he continues his current pace. Murauskas is shooting 40.7% from 3-point range and has converted 14-of-15 free throws during the first two months of the 2022-23 season.
Murauskas shows a consistent and repeatable stroke, with a high release point which makes his jumpshots hard to contest. His best aspect as a shooter might be his preparation as Murauskas is incredibly quick and consistent to get into his stance. As a right-handed shooter, he angles his feet to the left of the rim, which allows him to square his strong side hip and shoulder to the basket.
His ability to get into his stance quickly allows him to catch on the hop and release his shot before defenders can catch him, which Lietkabelis utilizes by running plays for Murauskas to come off screens as an off-ball shooter. The 18-year-old has also shown this type of shot versatility on the opportunities he had as a shooter off-the-dribble, being able to rise up and drain 3-pointers out of dribble moves.
The other side of the floor is where Murauskas has the biggest area for improvement. Not showing an outstanding ability to keep opposing guards and wings in front of him when he has to defend one-on-one in the perimeter, Murauskas is playing mostly as an off-ball, corner defender for Lietkabelis, where he uses his length and size well to contest shots both in the paint and in the perimeter. His defense in closeouts is also a work in progress, mostly due to his lack of an elite ability to move laterally or to turn his hips when opponents attack those closeouts.
NBA Questions and Projections
Murauskas’ shooting profile projects to be one of the most enticing among international prospects ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft, and his success as an off-ball shooter creates a potential avenue for him to provide value as an on-ball scorer. Despite not having the explosiveness or quickness to get by opponents in the perimeter, he can be expected to utilize his gravity as a floor-spacer to draw closeouts and attack those opportunities with his fluid ball-handling ability.
Despite the defensive limitations he offers, Murauskas’ combination of positional size, shooting ability and productivity at the senior level for his age will certainly grant him some looks from NBA teams as a stretch forward who can add supplemental value with his ball-handling skills.
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