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NBA Draft Lottery Odds Nearly Sealed Entering Final Day of Regular Season

With just one slate of games left, the top three odds in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery are confirmed, with the rest of the standings nearly official.
May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A person watches the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A person watches the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Sunday's NBA slate will feature all 30 teams playing games from 6 p.m. ET onward, and while the schedule has heavy implications on the playoffs, it will also impact teams gunning for high odds in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery.

Friday's slate sealed the fate of three teams, who have the highest odds at the No. 1 overall pick in June. The Brooklyn Nets' 125-108 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks locked them in for the third-worst record in the league, meaning they will have a 14% chance at the top selection and 52.1% at the top four, along with the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards.

But the rest of the lottery standings aren't yet official. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings are both 22-59, and both have a good shot at losing on Sunday. The Jazz will face the Los Angeles Lakers, while the Kings will take on the Portland Trail Blazers.

If the two finish with the same record, a coin flip will determine who has the higher odds. The fourth-worst record has a 12.5% chance at No. 1, while the fifth-worst team is at 10.5%.

The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks are also battling for the sixth spot in the lottery standings. Both at 25-56, the Mavericks have the advantage after losing the season series 3-1. Memphis will take on the Houston Rockets on Sunday, while Dallas will face the Chicago Bulls, a fellow lottery dweller.

If the Mavericks lose, they'll be locked in with a 9% chance at the No. 1 pick. However, a win and a Grizzlies loss pushes Dallas back to the seventh spot with a 7.5% chance at the top selection.

The Play-In Tournament teams are confirmed in the Western Conference. The Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors will battle for two spots in the playoffs, while the other two will move to the lottery.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers are fighting for the sixth seed and the final guaranteed playoff spot. The Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are locked in for the Play-In Tournament, while two of the three teams mentioned before will fall back.

With this year's draft class carrying more potential superstars than in years past, teams in the basement of the league are doing everything to get the best lottery odds possible. Sunday's slate will have all fans watching for a variety of reasons.

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Jed Katz
JED KATZ

Jed is a student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison majoring in journalism. He also contributes at several other basketball outlets, including has his own basketball blog and podcast — The Sixth Man Report.