Scouting Snapshot: Ace Bailey Offers High Upside Wing to 2025 NBA Draft

Still-18 years old on draft night, Ace Bailey has been one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Let’s take a look at his game and how that will translate to the NBA:

Offense

Ace Bailey is a fantastic shooting prospect, even though his shooting splits may not reflect that (FT%: 69.2 | 3-PT%: 34.6 | Midrange Jumpshot%: 39.3).

At 6-foot-9 in shoes, he shoots with a high release point and over the top of most defenders. Bailey has a high degree of shot versatility with his quick release and ability to shoot off different footwork, whether that’s shooting off movement, off the dribble, or off the catch. There is an extreme confidence in his shot, as 62.5% of his shot diet at Rutgers consisted of jump shots. This ability to get into his shot quickly and the confidence give him a lot of shooting gravity on the court that forces defenses to guard him tightly.

Outside of his shooting prowess, Bailey is a great vertical athlete. Even with a mere 102 rim attempts on the season, he had 26 dunks off of lobs, cuts, and drives.

Offensively, Bailey’s biggest limitations are his strength, scoring tunnel-vision, and his handle. Weighing in at 202.8 pounds during the NBA Draft Combine, Bailey struggles to carve space with his frame, and it often leads him to be contact-averse. Bailey’s deceleration also leaves a lot to be desired, which, when combined with his strength limitations, forces him to take a high volume of midrange shots instead of rim attempts.

This is further emphasized by Bailey’s handle, where he often has a high dribble and has to pick it up against stunts from gap-defenders. Bailey’s high midrange volume is a counter to these limitations above, but it has also led to Bailey being myopic with his scoring, as it is easier for him to lift into his shot rather than pass in these situations.

Ace Bailey’s feel has been questioned, but I do believe his passing feel is not as bad as the numbers dictate (0.30 Assist To Usage Ratio). From a standstill, Ace is looking to pass and find the open man when he has extra defensive attention, but off a live dribble, his handle does not accommodate for passing deliveries. At the very least, Ace can pass to make single-level reads like passing to the open man when gap help shows up.

Defense

With his size, tremendous length (7-foot ½ wingspan), and lateral agility, Bailey is an effective on-ball defender who can guard down and stifle players. He can guard at the point of attack against most guards and wings, but his strength limits him against bigger post-up players or bruising drivers.

Some intriguing utility that Bailey showcased at Rutgers was playing as the low man. His 8-foot-11 standing reach allowed him to play as a drop defender at times, and the general ability to flip his hips and stay attached to the action allowed him to guard the cat and mouse game effectively.

Off-the-ball, Bailey has all the tools to excel with his ground coverage, length, and lateral speed, but his feel limits him here. Due to his tools, he showcased a lot of value rotating at the rim, helping in the gaps, and blitzing. However, his pattern recognition to recognize rotations and knowing when to help is still a work in progress. He has the motor and intent to guard, but he can miss opportunities to create events on the perimeter, which is evident in his low steal rate (1.7 STL%) relative to his ground coverage on tape.

NBA Outlook

The biggest pitfalls for Bailey as an NBA player are the handle, strength, and pattern recognition.

Bailey has a high motor on the court, but his handle and pattern recognition limit how much he can leverage his motor and feel on both ends of the floor. His frame and strength also limit him, but his higher rebounding rates (7.0 OREB% & 17.5 DREB%) present the idea that he has motor.

Bailey brings shooting gravity and vertical pop, but lacks the strength to create space and the deceleration as a driver, which could cap any true creation outcomes. This is evident in his half-court layups, where he shot 42.1%, a product of not being able to find finishing angles with his strength. Bailey’s strength concerns are largely age-related and should improve over time; however, adding weight and developing core strength to handle contact should be a point of emphasis

Still, his potential as a dynamic play finisher and versatile defender makes him a strong outcome in any draft. I would not rule out any creation outcomes as Bailey’s shooting is extremely versatile and rare for his size, which could open up enough gravity long-term to develop his handle and pattern recognition. The track record of wings/forwards with an assist to usage as low as Bailey becoming a creator is poor, but his scoring tools make him a unique case.

The main question is, how realistic is scaling down as a scorer if he’s not an outlier shooter off the dribble at the NBA level? The answer to this is highly dependent on the context he develops in.

Usage Comps and Potential Team Contexts To Achieve It In

These comps are a projection of what the player’s usage could look like in varying fits and development contexts. This is based on the quality of the fits and development to get a player minutes early in their career. Team context examples are only for the median and high-end outcomes.

1. Low End

Saddiq Bey

2. Median

Jaden McDaniels (Charlotte Hornets)

3. High End

DeMar DeRozan (Utah Jazz)