The Appeal Of Victor Wembanyama Might Force Teams To Tank Again
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Tanking for a high draft pick has become a less desirable option after the NBA changed the lottery odds. Whereas in the past the team with the worst record had a 25% at the top selection, and could fall no further than to the 4th pick, today those numbers have changed to 14% and the 5th overall pick, respectively.
As such, building through the draft now comes with the understanding that you may have to settle for lesser selections than where the superstars land. Some teams, like the Oklahoma City Thunder, have banked on quantity of draft selections, hoping for just a few to land in the Top 3.
It's a fair approach, even if the odds aren't forever in your favor anymore, but it's not for everyone. For some teams, the changed odds means an increased focus on being competitive, with more teams than ever fighting for playoff positioning late into the season. From a competitive point of view, that's great for the game of basketball, and the NBA at large.
Yet, it seems some teams are less willing to go into the 2022-2023 season with the mindset of being ultra competitive. Especially those who know the odds of winning a title are near zero. Instead, those teams, like the San Antonio Spurs, are likely to ignore poor draft odds, and go tanking regardless.
You might wonder why the change of approach, especially for a team usually so stubborn about not tanking.
The answer lies in France, near Paris specifically, where a teenager is capturing the imagination of the world. Standing at 7-foot-3 - which is likely an outdated measurement - Victor Wembanyama has become the biggest prize of the 2023 NBA Draft.
Wembanyama will be covered a ton on this site in the coming year, and rightly so. This 18-year-old has a ceiling that is difficult to comprehend, as his defensive upside will be similar to that of Rudy Gobert, one of the best interior defenders in the history of the league, and his offensive upside will be that of, quite ironically, Gobert's new teammate Karl-Anthony Towns.
Now, this is the part where I have to temper expectations and say something like "having upside doesn't mean he'll achieve that level" or "he could end up being much worse than both at each end of the floor".
Because, yes, nothing is written in stone at age 18. Theoretically, even LeBron James could have ended up not living up to expectations when he got drafted in 2003. Until a player proves it at the highest competitive level in the world, it's all theoretical.
However, that's hardly the point.
The point of Wembanyama is the fact that I can bring up those upsides without blinking. Because those are genuinely in play. His near 8-foot wingspan, shot-blocking timing, and ability to hit three-pointers off the dribble allows him to have essentially unlimited upside. You can easily see a path where he both spreads the floor as a shooter and is a roll threat, just as you can see a path to him becoming one of the most feared rim protectors in the game.
And, lest we forget, that's the purpose of the draft anyway. Go for upside, and identify the player you think will be the best down the road.
Of course, factors such as injury history, future injury likelihood, personality, dedication, and a ton of other components play into how a team will end up ranking Wembanyama.
Those are areas we aren't quite privy to yet. We do know Wembanyama has been injured a fair bit in recent years, but whether that's an indication of a pattern is for much smarter people to identify.
How Wembanyama will develop with Metropolitans 92 - the team he switched to this summer - will be of great interest to millions of basketball observers. This season will be one of data gathering.
How far has he come from last year? Does his production point to certain strengths and weaknesses in the NBA? Is the perception of him higher than where his game is?
Overall, though, even the most skeptic scout cannot get around the fact that Wembanyama, from both a physical perspective, and a perspective of skill, ranks in the highest possible category for NBA prospects over the past 20 years. If he puts it all together, Wembanyama could become this generation's Hakeem Olajuwon, but one who shoots three-pointers.
For a team like the Spurs, that upside is worth skipping a year of fighting tooth and nail for a play-in spot.
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