The Peculiarity Of Center Prospects

Drafting big men, centers in particular, has become a tricky game. Unless the player in question projects as a multipurpose star, the position is one of the toughest to prioritize, as the free agent market usually has talent at the position to spare.

I mean, heck, as of writing, Hassan Whiteside is still just sitting at home waiting for a phone call.

Of course, a center currently ranks as the top projected pick of the 2023 NBA draft, but let's not lump Victor Wembanyama into the grouping of traditional centers, as he defies common logic.

In fact, Wembanyama is a perfect example of how centers today need to either stand out, or be virtually flawless, to hold a high spot in the draft.

As the game has grown more perimeter-oriented, emphasis on shooting, passing, ballhandling, and defensive switchability has risen exponentially. Let's just look at the power forward position, which has essentially morphed into becoming just a slot for a secondary small forward. Players such as Harrison Barnes and Tobias Harris are now widely considered fours, when just a decade ago, they were considered threes.

Centers, as we know, usually don't possess great on-ball creation, nor do most possess shooting upside or the ability to guard the perimeter consistently. What's left is a position where the vast majority of players playing it can defend the rim, score inside, and rebound.

Those three elements are valuable but not as valuable as previously mentioned top-tier skills.

In Lithuania, children are taught dribbling, shooting, and passing as the three primary pillars of their fundamentals. As they grow, both in game and stature, those skills are transferred with them, at least to some extent, with bigger players later in life receiving the traditional big man education.

That approach should be mimicked everywhere else, considering the obvious benefits it presents.

Being tall at a young age can in certain areas be a disadvantage, as some youth coaches will cast that player into the role of center, and prevent them from learning guard skills.

I can personally attest to this. At 13, I was 6'3, and often the tallest on my team. While I hated playing in the post, that's where I spent all of my time.

Now, at 36, I'm still 6'3.

While I gave up the game due to back issues over 20 years ago, many in my position may not have. But how many teams are in need of a 6'3 center? Truth be told, those players never stood a chance.

In today's world, we see more open minds to letting the game grow positionless, which will go a long way in building the next generation of multipurpose centers. But we're still seeing the tail-end of consequences of tall players who were never encouraged to expand their game.

Simply put, the perimeter-focused game took off too quickly for everyone to follow along.

There's a reason we're seeing centers like Brook Lopez and Nikola Vučević launch three-pointers later in their careers. Centers are trying to adjust to the needs of the current game. Would Karl-Anthony Towns be a max player if he wasn't as effective as a shooter and shot-creator?

And finally, it shouldn't be lost on anyone that Nikola Jokić had to essentially become a 6-foot-11 point guard/center hybrid, and basically break the game, to become the MVP.

In Detroit, Jalen Duren is doing very well for himself at just 19 years old. He's rebounding the heck out of the ball and growing more and more physical by the day.

But let's be honest about something. The intrigue around him isn't about what he does now, but rather how he will develop. Duren has an old-school game, and weaknesses often associated with centers. He doesn't shoot three's, is not a great free throw shooter, and doesn't create his own looks.

That isn't a problem if those things come along as he improves. But if they don't? Then perception changes, and quickly. He'll go from being full of intrigue to being expendable. Rebounding, shot-blocking, defense, and rim-running will always have a place in the NBA - not arguing otherwise - but the less a center has around those capabilities, the easier it is to replace them with a minimum salary player from the free agent pool.

Even Duren himself was selected 13th despite having the physical build of someone a decade older than his birth certificate indicates. 20 years ago, he might have been in the conversation for becoming a top overall selection.

As such, teams are now discussing internally whether to forego centers early in the draft, unless the player stands out as a potential superstar, or becomes one of the best defenders in the history of the game, such as Rudy Gobert.

And those discussions make sense, especially for teams in the middle of the pack who are trying to level up. Why invest a high pick in a center, if you know Whiteside is a text message away, or you can get Andre Drummond for $3 million a year?

The game has changed, and it's time for youth coaches and tall players to come to grips with the need for change, especially if those young centers want to make serious money when making it to the NBA.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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