What Can Grant Nelson Bring At The Next Level?
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Last week, North Dakota State’s Grant Nelson went viral on social media for his extraordinary mixtape. The 7-footer’s highlight reel consists of streetball dribble combos, glossy pull-up jumpers, poster dunks, and violent blocks:
This newfound exposure has ushered in widespread murmurs of Nelson being a potential draft prospect come June, but a look beyond just the highlights is needed to deem if there is any legitimacy to these claims.
Evaluating His Skills
As a shooter, Nelson’s numbers are a bit underwhelming considering the dynamic, versatile, sniping displayed in his highlight tape. He’s shooting 20% from deep this season, and per Synergy Sports, he ranks in the 9th percentile in catch and shoot efficiency and in the 49th percentile in efficiency on dribble jumpers.
His unorthodox form greatly contributes to this. He brings the ball up from his waist, cocks it all the way back until it’s next to his ear, and catapults it, all with his elbow flaring out a bit.
It’s possible that his less-than-ideal mechanics are low-hanging fruit to pick, and the fact that he can at least make some shots with this form indicates a good amount of shooting potential. However, I would be more comfortable adopting this viewpoint if he could regularly exhibit good touch on finishes.
Despite this, Nelson ranks in the 95th percentile in efficiency at the rim. The reality is that high-end touch isn’t necessary for a player with Nelson’s stature and athleticism to be a good finisher.
Nelson’s fluid handle, tantalizing straight-line speed, ginormous frame, and sleek footwork make him a punishing driver that routinely takes defenders off the dribble. He can both dust slower-footed bigs and overpower smaller guys with bumps or through “Barkley-ing” his attacks into post-ups.
Nelson is also an awesome passer. He can see over the top of defenses to fire cross-court passes, craft creative deliveries with his length, and drop quick dimes with his rapid processing speed.
While movement skills are a strength of his offensive repertoire, Nelson is pretty stiff defensively. He struggles to accelerate in short areas and change directions while in a defensive stance. He also seems to react to situations a step slow.
On the other hand, he’s a gigantic presence at the rim when position, averaging 2.3 blocks per game.
Tying His Skills Together
With a very odd skill-set, it’s essential to highlight how his strengths can reasonably flourish in unison. As an adept driver, passer, and play finisher, Nelson has the foundation of an initiating big man - someone who can weigh facilitating, attacking, and flowing into dribble-handoff pick-and-rolls with the ball in their hands à la Domantas Sabonis. However, he’ll need to continue to work on making contact and sealing when screening.
On the other side of the court, Nelson is at his best closer to the rim. Ideally, he would be placed in a role where his perimeter responsibilities are limited and he can prioritize protecting the rim, such as in a drop.
Outlook
At this point, Nelson’s flashes of one-of-a-kind brilliance are just that - flashes. It would be unwise for an NBA team to draft the Bison’s junior on the promise of this “unicorn” upside. But Nelson can leverage his unique skill-set into carrying out modern big man duties in his own dialect. He clearly has plausible pathways to value on both ends, which can rationalize taking a swing on him come June.
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