Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction, Player Props, Picks & Odds: Today, 3/13
It was a rough way to end the weekend for the Miami Heat and their fans, but they get to try and bounce back in a big way with another rematch of the 2023 NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets tonight. To prepare you for the marquee matchup of the night, we’ve provided our best Nuggets vs. Heat prediction and player props.
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NUGGETS VS. HEAT PREDICTION: Under 214.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction for Today, 3/13 on ESPN
As mentioned, tonight’s game is a rematch of the 2023 NBA Finals, which we recently saw less than two weeks ago. Our experts correctly predicted a low-scoring game for that contest in this article, and we’re expecting the same again tonight.
Of course, that last meeting plays a major factor in that, as does Miami without Tyler Herro. That has led to low-scoring games following that matchup against Denver, as the Heat has scored 108 points or fewer in each of their last three games. Most notably, scoring just 108 points against the NBA’s worst defense - the Washington Wizards - on Sunday speaks volumes.
That’s not to say that Miami’s defense isn’t doing their part - they haven’t allowed more than 110 points in any of their last four games. Although the Nuggets are coming off a high-scoring game, their defense steps up against strong opponents, as they allowed just 109 points to the Boston Celtics a few days ago.
Taking all that into consideration, our best Nuggets vs. Heat prediction is under 214.5 points (-110 at DraftKings).
Nuggets vs. Heat Player Props & Free Picks Featuring Terry Rozier & Michael Porter Jr.
If you’re looking for more approaches to this matchup, we also have Nuggets vs. Heat player props for you. Without Tyler Herro, it’s obviously the Jimmy Butler show even more so, but we’re actually going to target one of the newer members of the Heat.
That would be Terry Rozier, who has also been dealing with injuries since joining Miami. However, he looks 100% now, and we’re getting a solid number for his points prop tonight for a guy that led his former team in scoring. He hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard overall, but we did see him go off for 27 points against the Dallas Mavericks the other night.
In that game, he also recorded 11 assists, which made it three straight games with seven or more assists. That is a recipe for a combination market, so the first of our Nuggets vs. Heat player props is Terry Rozier over 20.5 points+assists (-105 at DraftKings).
As for the Denver side of the matchup, we have to go with Nikola Jokic, right? Well, this is one rare case where that is not our approach. We certainly wouldn’t fault you for backing the triple-double machine, but we’re going a bit more outside the box and taking Michael Porter Jr. Against Miami two weeks ago, he went off for 30 points and pulled down 11 rebounds.
That was no fluke either; the very next game against Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers, he went for 25 points and 10 rebounds. We know that Bam Adebayo is a beast down low, but oddsmakers are simply not respecting how well MPJ has looked recently. Therefore, we’re also going to be taking Michael Porter Jr. over 23.5 points+rebounds (-115 at DraftKings).
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Nuggets vs. Heat Odds & Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook for Today, March 13th, 2024
We’ve covered the lines and odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for this 2023 NBA Finals rematch followed by a payout breakdown for our best bets:
- Point Spread: Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-105) vs. Miami Heat +4.5 (-115)
- Money Line: Denver Nuggets (-185) vs. Miami Heat (+154)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 214.5 (-115) vs. Under 214.5 (-105)
- Terry Rozier points+assists: Over 20.5 (-105) vs. Under 20.5 (-115)
- Michael Porter Jr. points+rebounds: Over 23.5 (-115) vs. Under 23.5 (-125)
So, a $110 bet on our Nuggets vs. Heat prediction of under 214.5 (-110 at DraftKings) profits $100 as long as the game stays under 215 points. As for our Nuggets vs. Heat player props, a $105 bet on Terry Rozier profits $100 as long as his points and assists add up to at least 21, while a $115 bet on Michael Porter Jr. profits $100 as long as his points and rebounds add up to at least 24.
Nuggets vs. Heat Injury Report and Projected Starters for Today's Game on ESPN
Last but not least, here are the projected starting lineups for both Denver and Miami along with any significant injury notes:
DEN Nuggets:
- Jamal Murray
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Aaron Gordon
- Nikola Jokic
MIA Heat:
- Terry Rozier
- Jimmy Butler
- Duncan Robinson
- Nikola Jovic
- Bam Adebayo
Injury-wise, we already mentioned Tyler Herro for Miami, and Denver is healthy across the board. Be sure to utilize all the information that we’ve gone through for you and ☀️become a new member at DraftKings☀️ for your guaranteed $150 bonus.
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