Kings Trading Away Key Guard Is Inevitable, According to NBA Insider

The Sacramento Kings are expected to part ways with a popular NBA trade target.

Jan 16, 2026; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings head coach Doug Christie cheers on during the fourth quarter against the Washington Wizards at Golden 1 Center. | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

As the trade deadline looms next week, Sacramento’s plans are becoming clearer. NBA insider Marc Stein on The Stein Line made his pick for “player most likely to be traded” before the deadline.

“The most likely player to be traded between now and the Feb. 5 deadline: Sacramento's Keon Ellis is a strong contender. League sources say numerous teams are in pursuit of Ellis, with the Kings believed to seeking a first-round pick given the widespread interest. One source close to the process essentially describes an Ellis trade as an inevitability,” Stein wrote.

For anyone who has kept up with this situation, Ellis coming up in trade talks should not come as a surprise. This was one of Scott Perry’s first big decisions. For someone who preaches prudence and not operating out of desperation, he chose the route that led to desperation here. 

How We Got Here

For those who are just getting up to speed on this situation, Sacramento could have declined Ellis’s team option and made him a restricted free agent last summer. They chose to exercise Ellis’s TO, making him extension eligible on February 9, and an unrestricted free agent if they do not extend him. Extensions under these circumstances are almost always for the player’s max.

Here is a visual laying out the results of comparable players in restricted free agency versus extensions versus unrestricted free agency: 

UFA/RFA/Extension precedent | JMC Sports 

RFA typically leads to players staying at lower prices. Extensions also keep players around, but at much higher prices. UFA is a mixed bag in terms of value, but the control is gone (note the team column - most UFAs in this value range change teams). So, Sacramento punted both value and control in this situation. The writing has been on the wall since they exercised Ellis’s TO. 

Sacramento’s Trade Paths

The Kings are reportedly asking for a late first-round pick for Ellis. On the surface, this seems fair. Most players are either 3 or D, but Ellis has shown he can do both at a high level, truly earning the 3-and-D label. As discussed above, though, Sacramento has boxed themselves into a corner both in their own negotiations with Ellis and in their trade discussions with other teams. 

Each day that goes by with Sacramento asking for a late first-round pick (a position almost wholly unsupported by precedent, as shown below) is another day closer to Ellis becoming extension eligible and becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. 

Recent comparable trades | JMC Sports 

As you can see, Mark Williams is the only trade above that returned a first-round pick. While already rare, Williams’s status as an RFA this summer gives the Suns more control over his situation, whereas any team trading for Ellis (a UFA this summer) will not enjoy that same control. 

Teams are certainly countering Sacramento’s ask by saying they could simply wait until July and sign Ellis as a UFA, as opposed to parting with valuable draft capital now for what could ultimately be a rental for the rest of this season. 

Further undermining Sacramento’s asking price of a late first is Ellis’s status (or lack thereof) in the rotation. Coach Doug Christie has opted to not play Ellis unless the rotation is affected by injuries. Ellis is playing just 17.4 MPG this season, down from over 24 last season, and has logged 8 DNP-CDs. 

Teams will absolutely mention Ellis’s inability to get consistent minutes on one of the worst teams in the league as a way to bring the price down. Unfortunately for Scott Perry, there is not much he can offer as a rebuttal to this point aside from showing them the numbers from when he does play. 

Keon Ellis not being able to get minutes despite being the best player on the Kings for multiple years never ceases to amaze me

He's a career...
43% 3P shooter
>2.5% STL and >2.5% BLK
+2.9 net rating
+4.4 on-off pic.twitter.com/jK414FXrKB

— NBA Stats (@sports_mediocre) November 10, 2025

For example, Zach LaVine missed yesterday’s game with back soreness, leading to Ellis getting 21 minutes, scoring 14 points. 

Ellis has had his ups and downs this season, but has largely been what people know him to be - a good defender who shoots the ball well. It seems like another team will get to enjoy that valuable skillset for a low price in the coming days.