Pelicans Trade Index: Strong Case For Keeping Current Squad
New Orleans, La.- The NBA trade deadline is less than 1,000 hours away but the fuse to the market has been lit. Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers are already making moves around the margins, dropping two-way contracts to clear roster spots and searching for 10-day veterans on a minimum. However, the New Orleans Pelicans can remain cool as trade rumors heat up.
The Pelicans are in first place in the Western Conference and have given the front office a strong case for standing pat with the current squad. Just look at the current five-game win streak which comes against a few other NBA Finals hopefuls. A commanding 127-116 victory over Joel Embiid's Philadelphia 76ers is just the most recent data point.
In fact, Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin has little reason to pick up the phone to initiate a trade. Just by virtue of making teams call New Orleans drives the price down. The Pelicans have more draft capital and financial flexibility around the luxury tax and salary apron than the other contenders.
The first piece of the puzzle that supports not making a move? The Pelicans do not want to be caught bidding against themselves. Over 70 free agents who signed new contracts this offseason became trade-eligible on December 15. A few more All-Star caliber options will be available in January. However, it would be surprising to see New Orleans rush into a swap this early in the season.
Coach Willie Green has led his team to a five-game winning streak with one road game in Memphis left on the 2022 calendar. The chemistry on this team is off the charts. Anyone walking the hallways or hearing the answers coming from the locker room can feel the positive vibes.
Need another reason not to rush into any moves? The Pelicans not only have the best record but they are also still waiting for Brandon Ingram to come back from a setback in his toe rehabilitation. The starting five has yet to play significant minutes together. Ingram is expected to be back sooner rather than later. Moves to shore up the bench can wait a few more weeks.
Forcing a move goes against this front office's standard operating procedure going back to the Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, and CJ McCollum trades. A deviation from that approach now would jeopardize future flexibility and the current organic, "sustainable" family culture. These Pelicans are largely a homegrown group that is still learning to play together. Sitting safely out of the Play-In Tournament conversation, there is no real pressure to break up one of the youngest cores in the NBA.
Need a financial reason? There is not much loose cash or empty space in the trade market. The talent on offer is debatable especially after Kevin Durant rescinded his trade demand. Either way, the Pelicans almost certainly will not be outgunned by another rival contender.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, for example, will not empty their cupboard of assets in a bidding war with New Orleans this season. The timeline for contention just does not add up for lottery-bound teams. And that's before factoring in that the Pelicans can match any lottery pick-based packages.
If the aim is to consolidate the end of the bench for another top-end playoff contributor it is just a matter of how much the Pelicans might have to overpay as a small market team with lots of desirable assets. Then again, McCollum had input on his future with the Portland front office and made the move to New Orleans willingly last season.
The Trail Blazers even threw in Larry Nance Jr. for practically nothing just to open up a trade exemption. Getting Nance Jr. included is further evidence that this front office is full of creative thinkers, clever tactics, and solid scouting reports to inform their draft and trade strategies.
Nov 30, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Larry Nance Jr. (22) shoots the ball against Toronto Raptors forward Christian Koloko (35) during the first quarter at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
With that in mind, getting team-friendly deals from the current squad might be the best route to take before this roster really gets expensive. Williamson's contract extension will kick in soon and could balloon up to $231 million with an All-NBA Team selection.
The Pelicans already have $169 million committed to 15 players for the 2023-24 season. The luxury tax is projected to kick in at about $162 million based on official NBA projections. Paying for a contender is the price of ownership. Spending wisely is the key to an extended window of contention. And there aren't many better values in the NBA than what the Pelicans currently have on the roster.
Of the top six earners on the roster (CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr., Devonte' Graham) only one is likely to be on a new team next season. Graham's $12 million contract will be one year closer to expiring and he will have only one more chance at a big payday before turning 30 years old. Everyone else is arguably on below-market deals.
McCollum's new contract gets cheaper every year. Nance Jr's $11 million is a bargain compared to his production. Williamson and Ingram were bound to certain rookie deal parameters but would fetch more on the open market. Valanciunas is one of the most respected big men in the game and will be on a $15.4 million expiring deal as a 31-year-old.
Dyson Daniels, Kira Lewis Jr., Trey Murphy III, and Herb Jones are all on cost-controlled rookie contracts. Murphy III and Jones are eligible for contract extensions soon. Jaxson Hayes is about to be a restricted free agent. Garrett Temple's $5.4 million and Jose Alvarado's $1.8 million contracts are non-guaranteed.
Naji Marshall ($1.93 million) almost always expresses his appreciation for New Orleans in press conferences. He has a club option covering next season and like Jones and Murphy III, is extension eligible. The contract values past Graham, Hayes, and Temple plus Lewis Jr. perhaps could bring in a $30 million talent. The rest of the reserve contracts do not add up to much and would not net a playoff-caliber rotational player.
If the team really wants to limit the luxury tax bill next season and maintain financial flexibility, there is a case to be made for actually shedding salary in a trade. New Orleans will just have to find the right undervalued option in a depressed market. That's a job for the scouting department.
Clearing some salary off the books and opening a roster spot is to look forward to the 2023 NBA Draft. The Pelicans hold first-round swap rights with the Los Angeles Lakers but will likely owe a lightly protected second-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks. A top-ten pick will cost between $4-9 million depending on the slot. Dyson Daniels (8th overall) is making roughly $4.5 million annually, for example.
Looking at contracts alone ignores what Griffin has dubbed the "human element" in this equation. The guys in the locker room now are not only tested but are trusted by their teammates thanks to the experiences of the past few years. There is no placing a value on that chemistry, and no telling how long it would take any new additions to adjust regardless of the current roster relationship dynamics.
Willy Hernangomez has one more year at just $2.5 million. How many other players can be the fifth option on the depth chart and still flirt with double-doubles every time they get extended minutes? Griffin and General Manager Trajan Langdon spoke about how much they value the Eurobasket MVP. Griffin even said Hernangomez was "untouchable" at the last trade deadline.
And that's when New Orleans seemed to be their most desperate to other front offices. The team went from 1-12 and reportedly attracted less than 6,000 fans to the Smoothie King Center on some nights last winter to hosting sold-out playoff games.
Now, the front office is negotiating from a position of strength atop the Western Conference standings. They may not have to make a move at all. This team has earned the right to play out the season just as it started. They've fought over 100 battles and won a few wars together. They deserve whatever glory may come at the end of this season, especially if a perfect deal is not on the table.
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