Raptors Pick Protections & the Stepien Rule Explained

The Toronto Raptors may find themselves trying to navigate the NBA's complicated Stepien Rule if they fall out of the playoff picture this season

Sometimes it's easiest just to rip the bandaid off quickly.

Sunday night's loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers has left the Toronto Raptors staring down the barrel of the play-in tournament and more likely than not a date with the Brooklyn Nets on April 12. Should Toronto lose to Brooklyn, the Raptors would play either the Atlanta Hawks or Charlotte Hornets in a do-or-die contest for their playoff lives.

If Toronto manages to survive the play-in tournament, the Raptors would play one of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and their 2022 first-round pick who be shipped to San Antonio as compensation for Thaddeus Young in the Goran Dragic trade deadline deal. That would likely be a pick somewhere between 15 and 18, meaning Toronto will have moved back about 20 spots in the draft to get off Dragic's contract and acquire Young for the final few months of the season.

However, should the Raptors fail to advance out of the play-in tournament, things start to get complicated. That 2022 first-round pick Toronto traded to San Antonio is lottery-protected, meaning if the Raptors don't make the playoffs this season, Toronto will keep the pick. Toronto would then owe San Antonio its 2023 first-round pick, protected picks 1 through 13. If the Raptors somehow missed the playoffs again, that pick becomes two second-round picks conveyed in 2023 and 2026.

That's where the "Stepien Rule" makes things even more complicated. NBA rules prohibit teams from trading first-round picks in consecutive years. Therefore, should the Raptors miss the playoffs this season, they'd be unable to trade their 2023 first-round pick, because it would be owed to the Spurs, and they'd be prohibited from trading their 2024 first-round pick without acquiring a first-round pick or receiving a pick swap in return because of the Stepien Rule. 

While missing the playoffs could help the Raptors from a draft pick perspective, allowing them to keep their lottery pick this summer and theoretically send San Antonio a less valuable pick in 2023 assuming Toronto improves next year, it certainly creates some headaches. Owning a late lottery pick in a notable weak 2022 draft isn't particularly valuable nor is a 2024 pick swap to any team expecting to be worse than the Raptors.

With 18 games to go and a 4.5 game lead on the 11th-seeded Washington Wizards, tanking is off the table for the Raptors. They've won too many games to somehow make that 2022 first-round pick valuable without some lottery ball luck again. At this point, they'd be better off making the playoffs and giving up that first-round pick this season. Keeping it just creates problems. 

Further Reading

Raptors get 1st look at point Scottie & other takeaways from Toronto's loss to the Cavaliers

Nick Nurse on point Scottie Barnes & timelines for Fred VanVleet & Malachi Flynn

Raptors sign Armoni Brooks to 10-day contract, release D.J. Wilson