Scottie Barnes' Extension with Raptors Could Hinge On Another Breakout

Scottie Barnes could have nearly $45 million on the line if he makes an All-NBA team next season and takes up 30% of the salary cap for the Toronto Raptors

Feb 26, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) shoots the ball while Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (00) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Scottie Barnes is going to have plenty of incentive to earn All-NBA recognition next season.

Considering where the Toronto Raptors are expected to finish next year, an All-NBA nod for Barnes seems pretty unlikely. None of the 15 players who earned All-NBA honors this year were from teams with a losing record and only Stephen Curry and Domantas Sabonis came from a team who failed to qualify for the playoffs.

That said, Barnes is widely expected to sign a max contract extension this summer that'll pay him 25% of the salary cap starting in 2025-26. Based on current salary cap projections, that'll be a $224.9 million deal over five seasons worth roughly $45 million per season.

However, should Barnes qualify for an All-NBA team next season or win the Defensive Player of the Year award, Barnes' contract would likely be bumped up to 30% of the salary cap. That would mean a starting salary of $46.5 million in 2025-26 and a $269.9 million contract over five years.

For Barnes, the difference between an All-NBA nod and not receiving league honors next year is nearly $45 million or roughly $9 million per season on his next contract.

Toronto saw this similar sort of situation play out with Pascal Siakam whose current contract jumped from 25% of the salary cap to 28% because Siakam earned second-team All-NBA honors back in 2020.

Barnes didn't qualify for All-NBA this season because he failed to meet the 65-game threshold, but another step forward and a healthier season could have him in the conversation if Toronto can get back into the playoff picture. He doesn't necessarily have a good chance, but Tyrese Haliburton earned an All-NBA bid after his first All-Star game appearance last season and a similar jump from Barnes may get him All-NBA honors.