Prop Bets for 49ers-Seahawks game
NO defensive/special teams TDs (-270)
Neither team has scored on defense or special teams yet in 2020. These rivals played a total of 13 games this season and there's only been a defensive or special teams TD scored once (Patriots vs. Seahawks, Week 2). That alone tells us we're getting good odds here. When something historically happens 1/13 times (7.7%) and we only have to lay $2.7 to win $1.00, let it loose. It's like seeing George Kittle left alone in man coverage one on one against a linebacker. It's not a guaranteed catch, but you're feeling really good about your chances.
There have been no punt return TDs in 2020 and only three kicks returned the distance, so the main threats to this bet are: 1.) A strip-sack returned for TD, 2.) A pick-6.
The strip sack isn't a concern since neither team has a dominant pass rush. In fact, Seattle's is perhaps the NFL's worst. A pick-6 is the biggest threat. But even if Russell Wilson chokes in the midst of an MVP season, good luck to Niners defenders outrunning D.K. Metcalf to the goal line. This bet likely hinges on Jimmy Garoppolo's ability to avoid disastrous throws, and lately he's been taking less chances than a helicopter parent trick-or-treating during a pandemic.
YES the game goes into overtime (+1150)
I think this will be a close game. Oddsmakers think this will be a close game (Seattle -3). Two of the last three meetings needed overtime. The other game was decided by Dre Greenlaw at the goal line. Pete Carroll and Kyle Shanahan know each other well, and they've historically played tight contests, so 11.5-to-1 odds are juicy.
SF wins by 1-6 Points (+400) AND Seattle wins by 1-6 Points (+375)
These bets are contradictory, but the value lies in the odds offered for each. Because each wager is over +100, the only way you lose money on betting this pair is if someone wins by seven or more points and, as explained in the overtime prop, I think it's a close game. In fact, if we see overtime, you'll be virtually guaranteed profit on this bet as well.
Because I lean toward the Niners winning, my Seattle wager is 60% of what I'm risking on San Francisco. For example, $100 on SF (+400) and $60 on Seattle (+375) would produce a profit of $340 if the Niners win by 1-6 and a profit of $125 if Seattle wins by 1-6.
Pizza money plays
Below are what I call, "Pizza money" plays. They're not official plays. They're for bettors who want to exchange a few dollars for a thrill.
No Turnovers in the game (+900)
49ers leading at halftime and the game goes into OT (+4000)
Russell Wilson scores Seattle's first TD (+1000)
Grading Last Week
If you bet equal wagers on all three official prop bet recommendations last week, you would have made a modest profit. If you would have taken my advice on last week's teaser bet, you'd have made a substantial profit.
SF scores 1st (+104) - WINNER
In last week's video, I predicted, "We know Bill Belichick loves to defer and give the other team the ball first, so I see this being a situation where the 49ers get the ball first and score on their opening drive." That is exactly what happened as Shanahan scripted a 9-play, 75-yard touchdown drive.
SF kicks longest FG (-115) - PUSH
This bet pushed and you got your money back. It was looking like a winner as Robbie Gould connected on a 41-yard field goal in the first half, but Nick Folk matched that four minutes into the second half.
Kendrick Bourne scores TD (+330) - LOSER
The riskiest of the three bets lost as Bourne disappointed with no catches on only one target.
For two more bets on the 49ers-Seahawks Week 8 contest, click here.
