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49ers-Seahawks Betting Angles

The "look ahead" line set prior to Week 7 had Seattle as -6.5 point favorites and that number dropped to -3.5 following San Francisco's impressive win over the Patriots.

Point Spread: 49ers +3

Total (Over/Under): 54

Line Movement

The "look ahead" line set prior to Week 7 had Seattle as -6.5 point favorites and that number dropped to -3.5 following San Francisco's impressive win over the Patriots. After Seattle's overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals Sunday night, most books opened with the 49ers as 3-point underdogs and the line has been relatively stable since Monday. Westgate and Bet MGM have the total set at 53.5, with most other books in Vegas are holding steady at 54.

The 49ers money line has become less profitable in the last 24 hours, dropping from +150 to +130.

Trends

The last time these teams played a game that wasn't close, the 49ers were unrecognizable compared to today as Malcolm Smith notched three tackles and Dante Pettis had a game-high 129 yards and two touchdowns.

Recently, these teams have played habitually close games - two ending in overtime and another by Dre Greenlaw at the goal line. The average total in the last three games was 49 and the "over" hit all three times.

Data suggests bookmakers exaggerate Seattle's home advantage as the Seahawks are 5-9 ATS at CenturyLink, including fortunate covers in 2020 against the Patriots and Cowboys.

For the third-straight week, the Niners are underdogs as Jimmy Garoppolo has extended his record to 11-3 ATS in games where his team is getting points.

Seattle is coming off a grueling week that saw six defensive starters log at least 73 snaps. Tarvarius Moore and Marcell Harris (52 snaps each) were the only San Francisco defenders to play more than 41 snaps in Week 7.

Getting a buffer

There are two ways gamblers can add points to a point spread. One is by combining the game with another result into a "teaser" as explained here. Another is by paying a premium to buy the point from your sportsbook. This week I recommend both.

Bettors should feel much safer with the 49ers +3.5 compared to +3. Buying that half point is expensive (-145) but worth it in a contest where overtime is realistic. With windy conditions expected in the Buffalo-New England game, I like the idea of teasing the 49ers with the under 43 in Buffalo.

Week 8 Best Bets:

1.) Two-leg, 6-point teaser (-110): 49ers +9 and Buffalo/NE Under 49.

2.) 49ers +3.5 (-145)

Last Week's Best Bet

Last week's recommendation, the Stanford Wong, two-team, 6-point teaser involving the 49ers (+8.5) and Steelers (+7), was an easy winner. Both teams won their games outright and didn't need the points. If you wagered 100 bottle caps on the wager, you would have earned 90.91 bottle caps in return.