Betting Angles for 49ers-Patriots
Point Spread: 49ers +2.5
Total (Over/Under): 43.5
Line movement
Five months ago, prior to the Patriots' mass Covid-19 exodus and the signing of Cam Newton, this game was listed as a pick 'em at the Westgate Superbook. This was also before the 49ers lost Nick Bosa and more than a dozen other teammates to IR.
The look-ahead line was set at New England -4 (-5 in some places) after the 49ers were embarrassed by Miami in Week 6, but prior to New England's loss to Denver. When the Week 6 dust settled, most books opened with the Patriots as -3.5 or -3 favorites. As of Wednesday afternoon, the line has moved through they key number of three, even though bets are split fairly evenly. This suggests the "Joe Public" money is on both teams and the "Pro Sharp" bettors are taking San Francisco and the points cushion. In 2020, road teams with line movement in their favor are 27-16 (63%) ATS.
With negligible wind or precipitation expected at Foxboro Sunday, the total has fallen from 45.5 to 43.5, perhaps reflective of injuries to both offensive lines. This game has more unanswered medical drama than an episode of Grey's Anatomy, so expect the line and total to adjust accordingly.
Trends
This is the second consecutive week that Jimmy Garappolo's team is an underdog and historically he is 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in these contests. It appears books are undervaluing the 49ers signal caller in these spots. The Patriots are 3-5 ATS in their last eight home games.
Short underdogs getting +2.5 points are an incredible 14-3 ATS this season (5-0 in Week 6). Furthermore, road underdogs getting +6 or less are 23-11 ATS (68%). All of these trends favor San Francisco.
The Stanford Wong Teaser
A teaser bet offers decreased odds when compared to parlays, but they offer more security because they allow bettors to add six points to any spread or total.
In his 2009 book Sharp Sports Betting in 2009, Stanford Wong explained that the most profitable teasers are those teased through the key numbers of three and seven. Meaning favorites get "teased down" (for instance from -8 to -2) and underdogs get "teased up" (For instance from +1.5 to +7.5). As a general rule, teasing "through zero" (from -2 to +4) isn't as profitable.
Statistically, 17% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points and 10% of contests are decided by exactly seven points, so this model can help gamblers get the math on their side.
This week's 49ers-Patriots game offers a textbook Stanford Wong opportunity.
Best Bet: Two-team, 6-point teaser (-110). 49ers (+8.5) and Steelers (+7).
Check back Saturday for more 49ers-Patriots betting information and be sure to follow @tonyshealthtips on Twitter.
