How likely is Bills defense to finish among NFL's best?

CBS Sports thinks that it's "somewhat likely" that the Buffalo Bills will finish top-10 in total defense.

Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) and cornerback Christian Benford (47) celebrate a turnover against the New England Patriots with linebacker Terrel Bernard (43) in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Three things are certainties in life—death, taxes, and the Buffalo Bills will have a generally stout defense under head coach Sean McDermott.

Buffalo has finished all but one of its seven seasons under McDermott with a top-10 defensive unit, finishing first in total defense in the 2021 and 2022 campaigns. The continued excellence can be attributed to several factors—the continuity at several key positions, the team’s ability to effectively replace contributors after they depart, and, perhaps most significantly, McDermott’s excellence as a defensive coach.

His ability may be put to the test in the 2024 campaign, as the Bills parted ways with several key starters throughout the offseason. Buffalo parted ways with cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the spring; the three have anchored the team’s secondary since McDermott’s arrival in 2017, combining for 284 starts, four Pro Bowls, and five All-Pro selections.

Upheaval in the secondary aside, Buffalo’s defense remains generally the same; White has missed much of the past two seasons with significant leg injuries, and the team has already effectively replaced him with Rasul Douglas. Thus, the safety spots are the only positions where the Bills will deploy new starters next season; they’re slated to return nine starters.

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The general continuity and presence of McDermott should allow Buffalo’s defense to be stout yet again next season. CBS Sports’ Jared Dubin shares this sentiment; in a recent article ranking the league’s defenses by how likely they are to be a top-10 unit, the writer ranked the Bills among the NFL's second-tier, writing that they’re “somewhat likely” to finish top-10 in total defense.

“The Bills made a ton of changes this offseason to a defense that essentially crumbled under the weight of a boatload of injuries last year,” Dubin wrote. “But Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Greg Rousseau, and Ed Oliver are still here. Sean McDermott is as well. And this has been a pretty consistent top-flight defense when healthy. Some of the pieces are gone, of course, but especially if they bring back Micah Hyde (who says he wants to return), the infrastructure is enough to say, yeah, it's somewhat likely that they get there.”

Dubin’s assessment is fair, but the team, again, is returning nine starters; Hyde and Poyer are significant losses, but with both at 33 years of age, Buffalo had to move on sooner rather than later. McDermott also has a penchant for ‘coaching up’ defensive backs and allowing them to perform above their perceived talent level; their departures will likely be better masked than many are anticipating.

It’s fair to have hesitation regarding the Bills’ defense given the team’s offseason turnover, but they’ll likely be just fine. Buffalo has, after all, finished with a top-10 unit in six of the past seven years, and it likely wouldn’t be wise to bet against the team in 2024.